Cincinnati Bengals Vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL Player Props & Picks (1/29/23)

Get Cincinnati Bengals Vs. Kansas City Chiefs player prop picks & odds for the (1/29/23) matchup

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Cincinnati Bengals Vs. Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Picks

In the AFC Championship, we’ll see two familiar foes face off as the Bengals travel back to Arrowhead for the fourth matchup between these teams in the last two seasons. In this article, I’ll dive into some player prop analysis, and this is a stacked game for player prop markets.

As always, be sure to use the player prop search tool above to compare odds from different books as the prices can vary significantly. In addition, check out the rest of the Lineups site for detailed analysis on both conference championship games. Our YouTube page has great content, as well. Let’s get to work.

Joe Burrow Over 17.5 Rushing Yards (-104 Caesars)

With three offensive line starters out for the Bengals last week, the team’s approach didn’t change a ton from what it’s been in recent weeks. They emphasized the short-area passing game as Burrow threw the ball quickly and decisively.

A big part of their offense was also Burrow’s rushing ability as he finished with six carries for 31 yards. In the postseason, it’s common to see quarterbacks utilize their legs more frequently, even if they aren’t necessarily dual-threat players.

Since their Week 8 bye, the Chiefs have allowed the second-most rushing yards to quarterbacks behind only the Lions. Just two opposing quarterbacks have failed to surpass the 17.5-yard threshold over that span.

Look at some of the names to go over 17.5 rushing yards against the Chiefs lately – Trevor Lawrence (26), Jarrett Stidham (50), Russell Wilson (27 and 57), and Davis Mills (21). None of those guys are exactly dual-threat dynamos.

The Chiefs play a lot of man coverage and blitz frequently, which is the recipe you want for quarterbacks scrambling and picking up yards on the ground. Look for Burrow to replicate his 46-yard performance against Kansas City in Week 13.

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Ja’Marr Chase to Lead the Game in Receiving (+170 FanDuel)

If you’d rather play Ja’Marr Chase’s base receiving prop, that’s a fine approach, but I love the value in this market. Chase has torched the Chiefs throughout his career, averaging eight catches for 139 yards in three career games against them.

Chase is elite against man coverage, averaging 3.52 yards per route run (YPRR) with a 121.5 passer rating when targeted against it compared to 1.61 YPRR and a 94.4 passer rating against zone. Joe Burrow also ranks second in the NFL in passer rating against man defense.

The Chiefs play man coverage at the eighth-highest rate in the NFL, and they aren’t great at it. That stems from their underwhelming boundary cornerback duo as rookies Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson have too often been overmatched.

As a result, we’ve seen some monstrous performances by wide receivers against this team. The Chiefs rank 31st in DVOA against WR1s, and they’ve allowed 100-yard performances to guys like Mike Williams, Mike Evans, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and even Josh Palmer.

Since returning from his injury in Week 13, Chase has an elite opportunity share in the offense. He leads the team with a 31.5% target share and a 40.6% air yard share, and no other player on the team comes close to those numbers.

Chase will dominate the Bengals’ passing game, while nobody on the Chiefs should compete in this market. Travis Kelce is the most likely candidate, but the Bengals are top seven in DVOA and catch rate allowed to tight ends, and Kelce is dealing with a back injury. Look for Chase to top 100+ yards and easily surpass all other pass-catchers.

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Samaje Perine Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-115 DraftKings)

The Bengals’ quick passing game worked wonders in neutralizing their offensive line deficiencies, and Samaje Perine was a huge part of that effort as he finished with five catches on five targets for 31 yards.

Perine has been the team’s preferred running back on passing downs over Joe Mixon in the playoffs. Per PFF, he’s been on the field for 43 passing snaps compared to 27 for Mixon. He’s also been the preferred option on third down and two-minute drill situations.

That isn’t surprising as Perine is the far more competent blocker. PFF grades Perine at 72.4 in pass-blocking whereas Mixon is at 30.1. Perine has surrendered just two pressures on 62 pass-blocking snaps compared to four pressures on 60 snaps for Mixon.

The Chiefs have been generous to running backs in the passing game all year as they’ve allowed 6.6 receptions (most) and 48.6 receiving yards (third-most) to the position. Perine has 40+ receiving yards in each of his last two games against this defense, and he could hit that mark again.

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I've been a huge sports fan for as long as I can remember and I've always loved writing. In 2020, I joined the Lineups team, and I've been producing written and video content on football and basketball ever since. In May 2021, I graduated from the University of Michigan with a degree in sport management. My goal is to tell enthralling stories and provide meaningful insight on the sports I write about while helping you cash some bets along the way.

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