The NFL Conference Championship round has arrived and there are two exciting games to break down on Sunday. In the second game, we’ll see the fourth rendition of the budding rivalry between Bengals and Chiefs over the last two seasons. You can find full coverage for both Conference Championship games across our site and YouTube channel.
In this article, I’ll put together a Same Game Parlay (SGP) for the AFC Championship game. With SGPs, you can combine multiple different wagers across different player props and game markets to get boosted value. As always, don’t put more than you’re willing to lose on these SGPs. While the payout can be great, the odds are high for a reason. Let’s get to work.
*Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook
AFC Championship Same Game Parlay – Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs
There are two SGPs that I think present some correlated value for this game, and I’ll dive into both here. Let’s start with Ja’Marr Chase, who I think has the opportunity for a massive game on Sunday.
The Bengals’ offense has completely flowed through Chase lately. Since he returned from his Week 13 injury, he leads the team by far with a 31.5% target share and a 40.6% air yard share. Nobody comes close to either of those numbers.
Over that span, Chase has averaged 83.7 yards per game. That stretch includes a 97-yard performance against the Chiefs, and that shouldn’t have come as a surprise given the state of their secondary at the moment.
The Chiefs have relied on rookie cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, and it hasn’t gone very well. As a result, they rank 31st in DVOA against WR1s and allow the second-highest touchdown rate to wide receivers.
Against this defense, let’s capitalize on Chase’s massive opportunity share. Let’s play his 80+ receiving yards prop and his touchdown prop at -105. Finally, let’s round out this SGP with a play on the Bengals over 23.5 total points, a number they’ve hit in five of their last seven games.
- Ja’Marr Chase 80+ Receiving Yards (-146)
- Ja’Marr Chase Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-105)
- Bengals Over 23.5 Total Points (-116)
Full SGP Odds: +319 ($10 wins $31.93)
For our other SGP, I’m targeting some interesting trends having to do with the Cincinnati backfield. Samaje Perine has played on 43 passing snaps compared to 27 for Joe Mixon in the playoffs as he’s been the preferred option on third down and two-minute drill situations.
Perine is a far superior blocker to Mixon, so that’s not overly surprising. PFF gives Perine a 72.4 pass-blocking grade while Mixon is at 30.1. In addition, Perine has been a valuable part of the passing offense – he had 31 receiving yards last week.
Joe Mixon’s involvement in the passing game had come on early downs, but that has dissipated in recent weeks, particularly with Hayden Hurst’s continued emergence and the massive target share for Ja’Marr Chase.
Mixon has finished under 20 receiving yards in both of the Bengals’ playoff games, and he only saw three targets last week compared to five for Perine. While the Chiefs are vulnerable against running backs in the passing game, I expect Perine to be the benefactor not Mixon.
- Samaje Perine Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-130)
- Joe Mixon Under 23.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Full SGP Odds: +226 ($10 wins $22.67)