Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens NFL First Touchdown: Expert Picks & Predictions (11/16/23)

The Cincinnati Bengals face the Baltimore Ravens in Thursday Night Football (11/16/23). Get Bengals vs. Ravens First Touchdown best bets, as well as a player prop search tool to optimize odds shopping for Thursday night’s game.

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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens First Touchdown Picks

The goal of the First Touchdown prop is to identify which player will score the first touchdown of the game. Who will score the first touchdown in the Bengals vs. Ravens game?

Gus Edwards First Touchdown (+700 DK) & Lamar Jackson First Touchdown (+900 BMGM) & Keaton Mitchell First Touchdown (+1300 BMGM)

The Baltimore Ravens lead the NFL in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns while ranking fourth in red zone touchdown percentage. Lamar Jackson remains an unstoppable runner when he finds space, and Gus Edwards (238 pounds) is a bruising back that can fight through contact, especially during goal line attempts. These two have combined to score 13 touchdowns on the season behind Baltimore’s steady offensive line, which ranks ninth in PFF’s run blocking grade. Meanwhile, Mitchell is a speedster that has scored in two consecutive games. If he finds a hole and hits the open field, then he’s gone. 

The Bengals are surrendering the 11th largest opponent rushing touchdown to opponent passing touchdown ratio, so teams are successfully punching it in. Cincinnati is 29th in PFF’s run defense grade and giving up the second largest yards per carry. Look for the Ravens to gash Cincinnati and score first via Jackson, Edwards or Mitchell. 

Edwards needs to score first about 12.6 percent of the time for the bet to be profitable in the long run, while Jackson sits at 10.1 percent. Mitchell is at 7.2 percent. 

Ja’Marr Chase First Bengals Touchdown (+350 FD)

With Tee Higgins out, Chase’s competition is severely reduced. The superstar receiver owns 99 targets and 15 red zone targets (3rd best across the NFL); the next best active marks for the Bengals are 66 and 6, respectively, by Tyler Boyd. If Cincinnati gets to the red zone, then Chase is the guy for Burrow, but he also possesses deep play potential. 

Joe Mixon could poach Chase’s scoring opportunity, but he meets a stout Ravens defense that has given up only four rushing touchdowns all year. I expect him to find minimal rushing success, thus forcing Burrow to throw a ton in the red zone. 

Chase needs to score first roughly 10.1 percent of the time and score Cincinnati’s first touchdown roughly 22.3 percent of the time.

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2021-22 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs about analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions and NBA Analysis Network.

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