Get Bengals vs. Titans player prop picks & odds for the (10/1/23) matchup
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Bengals vs. Titans Player Prop Picks
The Tennessee Titans host the Cincinnati Bengals this Sunday (10/1/23) at 1 p.m. ET.
Joe Burrow 275+ passing yards (+134 at FanDuel)
Joe Burrow finally started looking better last week against the Rams, and now he gets a great matchup against one of the worst passing defenses in the NFL. This is the week the best version of Joe Burrow finally shows up for the 2023 season.
While Burrow’s passing yards prop line is 265.5 this week, we prefer the alt passing yards line at 275+ as the best prop bet in this game. For just 9 extra yards you flip the odds from -115 to +134 for a much nicer payout, and we have enough confidence that a big game is coming to add those extra yards.
The Titans are arguably the best team in the league against whom to bet the overs on quarterback passing yards (and start your quarterbacks in fantasy football leagues). Their defense is great against the run, allowing the fifth fewest rushing yards so far this season (69.3 per game) after leading the league in that category at 76.9 last season. They are also top 4 in rushing EPA per play and rushing success rate allowed after leading in both of those categories last season as well.
On the other hand, the Titans were dead last in passing yards allowed last season (274.8/game) and 27th in the net yards per attempt allowed (6.6). They were also 28th in EPA per dropback and 25th in passing success rate allowed. So far this year nothing has changed much. They are 28th in passing yards allowed (275.3), 26th in net yards per attempt (7.1), 26th in EPA per dropback and 29th in passing success rate.
Of the three quarterbacks that have faced the Titans this season, two have passed for over 300 yards (Derek Carr and Justin Herbert) and the other (Deshaun Watson) came close at 289. What do those numbers all have in common? They are much higher than 275.
Burrow went over 275 in 8 of his 16 games last season but has not yet done so in 2023. What he has done is increase his passing yards each week with a high of 259 last week against the Rams. He is going to get better as the season progresses, and this week is a prime opportunity to prove that. We like betting on guys like Burrow in this type of situation, and love this prop bet this week.
Joe Mixon under 51.5 rushing yards (-110 at BetMGM)
Did we mention that the Titans have a really good run defense? If they’re going to funnel the offense to the passing game and lead to Burrow having a big day through the air, then it follows that the rushing attack should be pretty limited.
The Bengals are already struggling to run the ball and now they face one of the toughest run defenses in the league. The Bengals are 29th in rushing yards per game (69.3), 35th in yards per attempt (3.6), and 31st in success rate (30.2%). They are also PFF’s 24th rated rushing offense and 31st rated run blocking unit.
The good news for Mixon is that he is still getting the lion’s share of the work in the Bengals’ backfield. He has played on 72.5% of the Bengals’ snaps so far this season and received 88% of the backfield touches. As a result he is averaging 60 rushing yards per game this season (17th in the league) and he is averaging a respectable 4.0 yards per carry despite being 32nd in the league in success rate.
It’s possible that Mixon could get to over 51.5 rushing yards on volume alone, but given the expected game script and the matchup against Tennessee, it seems far more likely the Bengals will simply abandon the run and focus on the passing game. That could create some value on Mixon’s receiving props, but we prefer to just take what looks like the safest play with the under on his rushing yards.