Best Bets and Player Props for Penn State vs. Notre Dame CFB Playoff Semifinal

The College Football Playoff semifinals present two excellent matchups on Thursday and Friday, preceding the NFL’s wild card weekend for a full slate of playoff football. First, on Thursday, No. 6 Penn State takes on No. 7 Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl in Miami with kickoff at 7:30 p.m. ET.

The following night, No. 5 Texas faces No. 8 Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl in Arlington, Texas, at 7:30 p.m. ET. Both games will be on ESPN. 

Below, we break down our best bets for the Orange Bowl on Thursday night, providing two looks at sides, totals or game props, along with two looks at player props where available. In states where sportsbook apps cannot offer college football player props, you can still use this information for pick’em-style contests or to inform other wagers on the game. 

Penn State vs. Notre Dame Best Bets 

Penn State vs. Notre Dame: Notre Dame Under 22.5 Points Under -115

• The Fighting Irish got past Georgia with a strong defensive effort but only averaged 4.0 yards per play with 244 total yards. Notre Dame went 4-for-15 on third and fourth downs and now prepares for a Penn State defense that allowed the fifth-fewest points per game (15.8) and yards per game (288.9) this season. The Nittany Lions just held Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty to 3.5 yards per carry and dared Maddux Madsen to beat them deep. Notre Dame is arguably even more one-dimensional on offense with a conservative ground-based approach. Penn State has a top-10 run defense and a solid secondary that has been able to contain most receivers other than the best prospects in the nation. 

Penn State vs. Notre Dame: Penn State +2.5 Under -115

• Since we like Penn State to hold down the Irish offense, we also like the Nittany Lions to keep it close or pull out the win. Penn State is 4-1 against the spread outside of the Big Ten this season, winning by an average of 26 points per game after crushing two non-conference foes in the first two rounds of the College Football Playoff. Penn State’s only two losses this year have come against arguably the best teams in the nation in Oregon and Ohio State. Notre Dame hasn’t faced that level of competition and is only favored here after taking down a wounded Georgia squad that made a few key mistakes to flip that game but out-gained the Irish overall. Notre Dame’s weakness on the defensive front could also prove pivotal against the two-headed monster in Penn State’s backfield.

Penn State vs. Notre Dame Player Props  

Kaytron Allen Over 54.5 Rushing Yards Over -130

The more experienced tailback of Penn State’s tandem broke several big plays for 134 yards against Boise State with another 50-yard run called back by penalty. Allen is the focal point of an offense that should be conservative against turnover-minded Notre Dame. He’s averaging 7.8 yards per carry in three postseason games and is physical at the point of attack, so the Nittany Lions could ride him more than Nick Singleton against an Irish front that is a bit undersized. If the Penn State defense finds success against a one-dimensional Irish offense, the Lions could control the clock and feed Allen frequently throughout the second half. 

Jordan Faison Over 40.5 Receiving Yards Over -125

If Penn State finds early success and builds a lead, we could see much higher passing volume from Riley Leonard. Notre Dame was able to keep the ball on the ground against Georgia but could be forced to abandon that approach if the Lions stack the box. Faison has emerged as one of the best possession receivers for Leonard, with 11 receptions for 135 yards through two playoff appearances. Faison won a national championship with Notre Dame lacrosse last spring and seems to thrive in big moments. Penn State has allowed opponents to complete nearly 60% of their passes with the 25th-ranked sack rate (8.07%) in the FBS this season, compared to a top 10 run defense that will be hard to crack.