Best Bets For College Football Playoff Saturday Games

At last, the new College Football Playoff is here, with four first-round games kicking things off. Saturday features a three-game slate with No. 4 Penn State hosting No. 10 SMU, No. 5 Texas hosting No. 12 Clemson, and No. 6 Ohio State hosting No. 7 Tennessee in a premier nightcap matchup. 

We’ve got three best bets on the spread or total for these Saturday games and a couple of player props to consider where available. US sportsbooks also have promotions and welcome bonuses for new customers during this busy December for college football, and many books will offer boosted bets for the day of games. 

College Football Playoff Saturday Best Bets 

SMU @ Penn State: Under 53.5 points: 48.5 (-112) on DraftKings

• Weather is going to be a factor in most of the Saturday games in Big Ten country, and the coldest temperatures are forecast for Pennsylvania. The Nittany Lions always play a bruising style that bleeds clock with a run-heavy approach, and their defense is capable of shutting down any opponent. Southern Methodist University is down in Dallas, so the Mustangs could struggle in the cold. Kevin Jennings was prolific in a shootout loss to Clemson in the ACC championship, but Penn State could give him trouble. Offensively, the Lions could miss Beau Pribula after he entered the transfer portal. Defensively, the Lions have allowed the fifth-fewest yards per game (282.2) overall and are giving up an average of just 11.1 points per game at home this season. Penn State is 8-6 to the under at home since the start of last season and 5-2 to the under against ranked opponents in that span. 

Clemson @ Texas: Clemson Over 19.5 Points: Over 19.5 (-120)

• While Texas has only allowed 20-plus points three times this season, with two of those coming against Georgia, the Tigers are rolling on offense right now. Clemson might abandon the run early against a stout defensive front, but Cade Klubnik has been red hot down the stretch, and his top receivers are capable of winning against the Longhorns’ defensive backs. The Clemson offense has produced 72.7% of its yardage via the pass in road games this season. Klubnik has the lowest interception rate in the FBS, and the Tigers have come away with points on 87% of their red zone possessions this season. With the Texas offense sputtering to a degree, Clemson should enjoy enough possession to put up 20-plus points and potentially cover a 12-point spread. 

Tennessee @ Ohio State: Ohio State -7: Ohio State Buckeyes -7.5 (-105) on Bet365

• Enough money has come in on the Volunteers to shift this number from +7.5 to +7, and it could fall below the key number before kickoff Saturday. The Volunteers have a great defense and are capable of lighting it up with big-armed quarterback Nico Iamaleava under center, but they were shut out in the second half by Georgia in their only matchup against a true top-tier team. Ohio State has been stewing for two weeks after losing to arch-rival Michigan, and the Buckeyes are unlikely to bow out of this tournament in the first round. Can they win by over a touchdown? With the top-rated defense in the FBS in terms of points, yards, and opponents’ red zone touchdown percentage, the Buckeyes might just need to get over 20 to cover this number, and they recently dropped 38 points against Indiana’s elite defense. The receiving trio of Emeka Egbuka, Carnell Tate, and Jeremiah Smith should prove to be too much for Tennessee’s secondary. 

College Football Playoff Saturday Player Props  

Cade Klubnik Over 220.5 Passing Yards (Clemson @ Texas): Over 220.5 (-120)

• The Tigers are unlikely to have any success running the ball against Texas. That means high volume for Klubnik, who is coming off a 262-yard performance against No. 8 SMU in the ACC championship game. Klubnik passed for 280 yards against No. 15 South Carolina in his previous outing, and the Clemson offense has come a long way since opening the season with a 34-3 beatdown at home against Georgia. The Tigers run a lot of cross motion and quick screens that could boost Klubnik’s yardage when receivers run after the catch. Klubnik has a big arm, and he’s unlikely to be intimidated in this environment.

Dylan Sampson Under 94.5 Rushing Yards (Tennessee @ Ohio State): Under 94.5 (-115) on Bet365

• The Ohio State defense is incredible, and it’s unlikely to allow Tennessee’s top weapon to burn it for nearly 100 yards on the ground. The Buckeyes have allowed just 2.9 yards per carry, the fifth-best mark in the FBS this season, and opponents are only running at a 54.8% rate against that stout front. Michigan rode Kalel Mullings (32 carries, 116 yards) to a low-scoring win over Ohio State in its season finale, but the Buckeyes will be fired up to bounce back from that poor showing. Tennessee is a bit more versatile with Nico Iamaleava capable of taking shots down the field, so look for a balanced approach from the Volunteers in a close game or a pass-heavy script if they get into an early hole.