Super Bowl 57 Best Bets
Get the Lineups.com staff’s best bets for Super Bowl 57 and find their favorite player prop bets and game bets for Super Bowl 2023.
Patrick Monnin’s Super Bowl Best Bet
Jerick McKinnon u8.5 Longest Rush: Over the course of the Chiefs’ playoff run, McKinnon has carried the ball 15 times for an average of 1.6 yards a carry. In the divisional round against the Jaguars he went 11 carries for 25 yards and in the AFC Championship against the Bengals he carried the ball 4 times for just 1 yard. More broadly, over the course of his last 19 games, he has only eclipsed the 10 yard mark on a single carry on just 4 occasions.
While this in-and-of itself suggests some value on the under, perhaps the more compelling angle to this prop is the fact that Chiefs Head Coach Andy Reid has slowly phased McKinnon out of the run game in general, opting for Rookie Isiah Pacheco instead. As a result, McKinnon has been featured as more of a motion man in the passing game. Additionally, the Chiefs offense will be facing one of the staunchest run defenses they have faced all season in the Philadelphia Eagles. Take Jerick McKinnon under 8.5 yards for his longest rush as a Super Bowl best bet.
Kody Malstrom’s Super Bowl Best Bet
Eagles total rushing yards u149.5: It may be juicy, but this number opened up way too high and boy am I thirsty. The Eagles have not covered this number in their two playoff blowout victories, a late game script that normally calls for a run heavy identity. They will be hard pressed to find the same blowout type success against the Chiefs as they did against the lowly Giants and injury riddled 49ers, keeping this tight and forcing the Eagles to continue to lean on the pass. The Chiefs field a weak pass defense, ranking 20th in Def Pass DVOA.
They are mainly susceptible in the middle of the field for Jalen Hurts to pick apart through the air, struggling to cover tight ends and slot receivers. This poses as an area for Hurt’s favorite target in tight end Dallas Goedert to exploit, as well as speedy slot receiver Devonta Smith who has seen more targets as of late. Not only have they failed to cover this number in their playoff games, but they have not covered this number in 12 of their 17 regular season games as well.
Jacob Wayne’s Super Bowl Best Bet
Chiefs ML: The Eagles have had an excellent season in all aspects, but they haven’t really been tested. The few times they’ve played the league’s best offenses, their defense has been exposed. Jared Goff’s Lions put up 35 points. Dak Prescott’s Cowboys put up 40 points. Aaron Rodgers’s Packers put up 33 points. Trevor Lawrence’s Jaguars put up 21 points despite him turning the ball over five times.
Now, they enter a Super Bowl facing by far the best quarterback in the NFL – Patrick Mahomes. Jalen Hurts has had an excellent season in his own right, but he hasn’t been the same player since picking up the shoulder injury. He has also benefited greatly from playing with a lead for much of the season – his EPA splits when he’s playing in a neutral or negative situation versus with a lead are staggering.
If I had to choose a quarterback and coach to go to war with in a Super Bowl this season, it would be Mahomes and Andy Reid. They’ve waited for two years for this moment after getting blown out by Tom Brady’s Bucs in their last Super Bowl appearance. The offensive line has improved a ton since then and they’re getting great production from this rookie draft class. In a game that will go right down to the wire, I love the value with Mahomes as an underdog, especially since the public is all over the Eagles.
Noah Rosenstein’s Super Bowl Best Bet
Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown: A Hurts anytime touchdown with plus odds is the best value on the board. Hurts is an absolute touchdown machine. In his two full seasons as a starting quarterback, he has more rushing touchdowns (25) than any quarterback in a two-season span in NFL history. His 13 touchdowns in the regular season were just one shy of Cam Newton’s regular season record, and after scoring two more in the playoffs he now holds the NFL record for quarterback rushing touchdowns in a season (including postseason).
Hurts has reached paydirt in 11 of his 17 games this season (65%) and seven of his last nine (78%). The fact that he has scored in back-to-back playoff games should alleviate any concerns that his lingering shoulder injury will prevent him from running the ball, especially in the red zone.
Speaking of the red zone, the Chiefs have the second-worst red zone defense in the league, allowing touchdowns on 67.3% of red zone trips. They have also allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks and tied for the sixth-most rushing touchdowns allowed. You are giving me even money on one of the best red zone rushing quarterbacks in NFL history against this defense? Sign me up!
Jason Guilbault’s Super Bowl Best Bet
Kenneth Gainwell Over 19.5 Rushing: Kenneth Gainwell is coming off a terrific two games to the playoffs, and has 26 attempts over the two games vs. the Giants & 49ers. Now these were blowout games, but Gainwell was involved early and the Eagles shouldn’t shy away from leaning on the rotation again. There will be opportunities for Gainwell to rip off a strong gain that could surpass or get near this prop already. Kansas City ranks 19th in YPC allowed and 15th in rush defense DVOA. Expect both teams to move the ball well in this one and there will be plenty of volume for Gainwell to hit this over.
Mia Fowler’s Super Bowl Best Bet
Jalen Hurts Over 292.5 All-Purpose Yards: The Eagles have arguably the most balanced offensive attack in the NFL and it all starts with Jalen Hurts. In their first postseason game, the offense split for three rushing touchdowns and two passing touchdowns on 416 total yards.
Against the 49ers, they stuck to the ground game and tallied four rushing touchdowns. I’d expect Hurts and his offense to maintain more balance this week, especially in the red zone. The Chiefs forfeited 33 passing touchdowns this year (most in the league). They also conceded the eighth-most passing yards and the fifth-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks which gives Hurts room to exploit different areas.
Hurts had over 292.5 all-purpose yards in nine games this year. When these two teams played in 2021, Hurts had 434 all-purpose yards.
Anthony Elio’s Super Bowl Best Bet
Patrick Mahomes Over 19.5 Rushing Yards: The Kansas City Chiefs have a tough task against a Philadelphia Eagles team with one of the best defenses in football. However, there are still some weak spots with this Philly defense, who have trouble when it comes to mobile QBs. Throughout the regular season, the Eagles allowed 25.4 rushing yards to QBs per game, the fourth highest total in the league. The biggest example of this came in Week 15, when Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields totaled 95 yards rushing against Philadelphia with a 6.3 average.
While Mahomes doesn’t rely on his legs as much as Fields, he’ll have plenty of opportunities to break off some runs in this matchup. His wide receivers have been dealing with injuries heading into the game, and tight end Travis Kelce can’t be open on every single play.
Mahomes has run well when healthy, most recently totaling 29 yards on the ground against the Las Vegas Raiders before suffering an ankle injury the following game. The QB went over 20 yards rushing in 10 games throughout the regular season, including 63 yards against the Tennessee Titans. With some extra time to heal from his ankle injury, I’m liking Mahomes to go over his rushing total on Super Bowl Sunday.
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