Best MLB NRFI and YRFI Bets For Tuesday
We have a full slate of MLB action Tuesday, and that means plenty of games to evaluate for potential NRFI/YRFI betting opportunities.
Multiple scenarios appear to be strong candidates for either category, and we dive into the top three below.
Contents
Handicapping NRFI and YRFI odds for April 22
| Game | YRFI | NRFI |
|---|---|---|
| Yankees at Guardians | ||
| Reds at Marlins | ||
| Padres at Tigers | ||
| Orioles at Nationals | ||
| Mariners at Red Sox | ||
| Phillies at Mets | ||
| Cardinals at Braves | ||
| White Sox at Twins | ||
| Dodgers at Cubs | ||
| Rockies at Royals | ||
| Blue Jays at Astros | ||
| Pirates at Angels | ||
| Rays at Diamondbacks | ||
| Brewers at Giants | ||
| Rangers at Athletics |
Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins, 6:40 p.m. Eastern (YRFI)
After a 22-run outburst Sunday at the expense of the O’s, the Reds were much more subdued against Max Meyer on Monday. Cincy scored a modest three runs and took a loss in the series opener, and neither team scored in the first inning.
However, I’m expecting a different environment Tuesday, with the volatile duo of Nick Martinez and Edward Cabrera facing off. Martinez’s 0-3 record, 6.00 ERA and 1.43 WHIP begin to tell the tale of what type of season it’s been so far for the veteran right-hander, and his 1.7 HR/9, 5.25 xERA and .367 xwOBA all indicate that his issues haven’t just been a matter of bad luck.
Cabrera has had his fair share of troubles, as evidenced by his 6.52 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 5.6 BB/9 and 1.9 HR/9. The right-hander does have some encouraging below-the-surface metrics — namely, a 3.95 xERA and .231 xBAA — but his significant control issues, the fact that he’s yielded the second-highest barrel rate of his career (11.1%) and his 9.00 ERA in two first innings this season do make him a pitcher we can target.
Cabrera has also faced current Reds hitters a total of 18 times, and they’ve generated a .467 average and 1.689 OPS against him in that sample. The inconsistency and control problems of the starting pitchers make this one worthy of targeting for a YRFI bet.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs, 7:40 p.m. Eastern (NRFI)
What could well be a true pitcher’s duel unfolds Tuesday night at Wrigley Field when Dustin May and Shota Imanaga do battle. The matchup between two talented NL contenders with loaded lineups may seem like a somewhat odd choice for an NRFI bet, but the talent of the starting pitchers makes a good case for it.
May missed all of the 2024 season due to multiple injuries, but he’s opened this season in seemingly career-best form. The right-hander has a 1.06 ERA and 0.76 WHIP while allowing just two earned runs and no home runs in the 17 frames covering his first three starts. His 2.02 xBA, .249 xwOBA and 2.27 xERA all point to that success having been legitimate so far.
Imanaga has had only one hiccup, as he gave up five earned runs over five innings to the Rangers two starts ago. However, he’s yielded one or no earned runs in his other four trips to the mound, and despite a drop in strikeout rate from last season’s 25.1% to 18.6%, he still boasts an impressive 14.0% swinging strike rate and has improved his LOB rate from 80.2% to 89.3%. Imanaga has also befuddled current Dodgers hitters by limiting them to a collective .176 average and .589 OPS over 55 plate appearances.
May has a good history versus Cubs bats, as well, as outside of frequent No. 9 hitter Jon Berti, the rest of Chicago’s current batters who have previously faced the Dodgers right-hander are just 2-for-12 against him. He’s also yet to be scored on in three first innings this season, while Imanaga has only yielded one run on the only first-inning hit he’s surrendered, a solo home run, in five opening frames.
The Cubs have a league-best 16-8 NRFI record, as well, and while the Dodgers are better about scoring in the first inning, L.A. only has a .196 average, .283 wOBA and -5.4 wRAA versus lefties.
Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros, 8:10 p.m. Eastern (NRFI)
Our second NRFI bet suggestion for Tuesday night involves a pair of lineups with plenty of big bats, as well as one starting pitcher with some unsightly numbers. Yet, there are some metrics that support the notion that runs could be difficult to come by early in this AL matchup.
Blue Jays starter Chris Bassitt’s early-season performance speaks for itself, as the veteran right-hander boasts a 2-0 record, 0.77 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. He’s allowed zero runs against the Mets and Braves in two of his first four starts, has yet to allow a home run, and has a career-best 33.3% strikeout rate. What’s more, Bassitt has managed those numbers despite an elevated .351 BABIP against him.
The Astros’ Ronel Blanco has much uglier numbers, but there’s reason to put stock into the belief he hasn’t been quite as bad as his 6.48 ERA and 1.68 WHIP suggest. Blanco’s 4.86 xERA and .340 BABIP allowed suggest he’s had some misfortune, and he’s actually had just one blow-up outing in his first four starts, which is also when he allowed his only first-inning runs of the season.
Blanco demonstrated his potential last season with a 13-6 record, 2.80 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over 30 appearances (29 starts), and he’s held current Toronto bats to a .125 average and .464 OPS in 46 career encounters.
NRFI bets are 10-4 in Houston’s home games and 7-4 in the Blue Jays’ road tilts, furthering the case for this game to have a scoreless first inning.
