Best MLB NRFI/YRFI Betting Matchups For Thursday, April 24
There is a solid MLB Thursday slate on tap, and that means games to evaluate for potential NRFI/YRFI bets.
Multiple scenarios today appear to be strong candidates for either category, and we’ll delve into the top three below.
Contents
Odds for Thursday’s NRFI/YRFI Matchups
| Game | YRFI | NRFI |
|---|---|---|
| White Sox at Twins | ||
| Mariners at Red Sox | ||
| Rockies at Royals | ||
| Brewers at Giants | ||
| Orioles at Nationals | ||
| Pirates at Angels | ||
| Rays at Diamondbacks | ||
| Rangers at Athletics |
Handicapping NRFI and YRFI Odds for April 24
Baltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals, 6:40 p.m. Eastern (YRFI)
Two teams with some offensive upside and one particularly questionable starter always make for a good YRFI consideration, and that’s an apt description for Thursday’s Orioles-Nationals interleague clash.
My primary target here is Baltimore starter Cade Povich, who enters with an 0-2 record, 6.38 ERA, 2.07 WHIP, 2.0 HR/9, 6.60 xERA, .318 xBA and .447 wOBA allowed. That suite of glaringly poor metrics naturally makes him a good candidate to falter early, as does the fact that he’s allowed a .397 average to right-handed hitters thus far this season.
Povich is likely to face at least two righty bats in Amed Rosario and switch-hitter Keibert Ruiz in the opening frame. Rosario has a .285 average and .746 OPS against southpaws since the start of the 2023 season, while Ruiz has bounced back in that split after a rough 2024 by supplying a .292 average and .737 OPS through 25 plate appearances against lefties early this season.
Both players are also above-average contact hitters, and while Povich has actually gotten through his first four opening frames unscathed this season, he’s run into trouble frequently in games as evidenced by his respective ERAs of 9.00, 11.25 and 10.80 in the second, third and fourth innings. What’s more, his .294 BAA in the first inning suggests he’s been fortunate to get out of some trouble and that it could be just a matter of time before the dam bursts in that scenario.
Then, while Nats starter Mackenzie Gore is certainly a quality arm, it bears mentioning that YRFI bets are 10-2 in Baltimore’s road games thus far, and they hold a 7-4 mark in Nats’ home contests.
Tampa Bay Rays at Arizona Diamondbacks, 9:40 p.m. Eastern (NRFI)
A potential gem of a pitcher’s duel awaits in the desert Thursday night, as the Rays’ Drew Rasmussen and the D-Backs’ Corbin Burnes face off. Rasmussen has been nearly untouchable through his first four starts, furnishing a 1-1 record with an 0.87 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and 9.6 K/9 while not allowing a single ball to leave the park during his first 20.2 innings.
The hard-throwing right-hander has faced some quality lineups, as well, having drawn the Rangers, Braves and Yankees in his last three trips to the mound. As his minuscule ERA suggests, Rasmussen hasn’t allowed a run in any of his first four opening frames either, and he’s held batters to a .154 average and just two total bases in that sample.
Meanwhile, Burnes’ D-Backs tenure may have gotten off to an uneven start, but he’s quickly begun to atone and will come in Thursday riding a two-outing streak of quality starts. He surrendered six runs (four earned) over his first two starts, but he’s bounced back by pitching to a 3.75 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his subsequent pair of trips to the mound.
Burnes has a 4.50 ERA in the first inning this season, but that’s solely the byproduct of the Nationals getting to him for two runs in his second start of the year. Otherwise, he’s held the potent Yankees, Brewers and Cubs lineups scoreless in each opening frame, and over the course of his accomplished career, he holds a 2.85 ERA and .211 BAA in the first inning.
NRFI bets admittedly have a spotty record in the home/road splits that apply Thursday — they’re 3-2 in Rays’ road games and 6-6 in D-Backs’ home contests — but Tampa Bay has yet to score in the first inning in a road matchup, and Arizona is only averaging 0.33 first-inning runs per home game.
Texas Rangers at Athletics, 10:05 p.m. Eastern (NRFI)
Two teams that have seen some offensive fireworks in their respective games this season are nevertheless a target for a scoreless first inning Thursday night, thanks to the quality of the two pitchers taking the hill.
The visiting Rangers will trot out Jacob deGrom, who’s finally healthy again and has started his season off with a 3.32 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and an average of just under 97 mph on his fastball, which indicates he could be in for a truly resurgent season. The veteran right-hander comes into Thursday’s start following his best outing of the season, as he held the Dodgers to a single run — ironically a leadoff homer to Tommy Edman — on three hits and a walk over seven innings while also recording seven Ks.
DeGrom did not allow a run in either of his two first opening frames of the season before surrendering one apiece in his last two, but he’s still holding opposing batters to a .200 average in the first inning so far. The Athletics are admittedly a pesky bunch that have given plenty of pitchers first-inning trouble this season — they’re averaging the fifth-most first-inning runs per home game (1.09), but deGrom appears to be rounding into form and clearly has no velocity concerns at this point.
On the other side, A’s starter J.T. Ginn put in an admirable body of work as a rookie in 2024 and has started off the new season solid as well, posting a 1-1 record, 3.60 ERA, 11.7 K/9 and 0.9 HR/9 across his first two starts, which came against tough interleague opponents in the Mets and Brewers. He’s furnished an unblemished ERA in both of those opening frames while allowing just a sole total base and a .143 average. The Rangers have been about middle of the pack with an average of 0.45 first-inning runs per road game, and they’re missing a key component of the top third of their order in Corey Seager, who’s hit the IL due to a hamstring injury.
