Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Saturday Divisional Round Matchups
This NFL divisional round features four great matchups, with none bigger than the finale on Sunday night between the Baltimore Ravens and host Buffalo Bills. Below, we’re picking our top player props for Saturday’s divisional round games, which consist of the Houston Texans visiting the Kansas City Chiefs at 4:30 p.m. ET, followed by the Washington Commanders visiting the Detroit Lions at 8 p.m. ET.
We’ve picked out four NFL player props to consider in Saturday’s divisional round games with some looks on the over, the under, or to consider using in a same-game parlay at your favorite sportsbook apps.
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Patrick Mahomes Divisional Round Player Prop Bet (KC vs. HOU)
Over 4.5 rush attempts: Over -114 on BetRivers
- Houston’s elite defensive line led the way in a 32-12 win over the Chargers in the wild card round. Those edge rushers should create pressure in this matchup against Kansas City’s struggling offensive tackles, which should force Mahomes to use his legs. He’s run far more often in the playoffs, especially recently when the Chiefs have not enjoyed as much pass protection. Mahomes is averaging 5.4 carries over the past three years in playoff games in the divisional round or later, going over this prop in each of the last four such games. He broke some runs early and finished with five carries for 33 yards when the Chiefs hosted the Texans in Week 16, and he was playing on a hurt ankle at that point. Coming off two weeks of rest, Mahomes should be able to use his legs to extend drives. Consider a side wager on Mahomes to top 3.5 rushing yards in the first quarter.
David Montgomery Divisional Round Player Prop Bet (DET vs. WAS)
Under 66.5 rushing + receiving yards: Under -115 on DraftKings
- When Montgomery was diagnosed with a sprained MCL in Week 15, his chances of returning this early in the playoffs seemed slim. Opting for rehab instead of surgery, the powerful back was able to get cleared for this game, but his workload is completely unknown. Jahmyr Gibbs has been dominating as the workhorse back in his absence and was already handling about 60% of snaps compared to 40% for Montgomery over the most recent five games when they shared the backfield. Montgomery is a far less explosive playmaker, with only one run of 20-plus yards this season compared to 21 from Gibbs. He only has run routes on only 15% of dropbacks and is averaging 2.7 targets per game, so adding the receiving yards creates some safety. If the Lions (-9.5) manage to build a big lead at home, they’re unlikely to risk Montgomery’s health ahead of the NFC championship.
Marquise Brown Divisional Round Player Prop Bet (KC vs. HOU)
Over 42.5 receiving yards: Over -125
- The Chiefs lacked a top receiving option with Brown on injured reserve for the majority of the season. When he returned from a shoulder injury, the coaching staff tried to integrate him immediately by feeding him 15 targets on just 32 routes in wins over the Texans and Steelers. Brown managed 45 yards on five receptions against top Houston cornerback Derek Stingley in that matchup, and he could see more usage as the Chiefs emerge from two weeks of rest. Andy Reid is notably great in terms of scheming up plays and winning games when he’s coming off a bye week. Brown and Xavier Worthy are new toys for him to deploy, and Patrick Mahomes can hit either deep threat with accuracy.
Terry McLaurin Divisional Round Player Prop Bet (WAS @ DET)
Under 5.5 receptions: Under -102 on FanDuel
- Washington might be trailing throughout most of this game, but that doesn’t mean McLaurin will turn into a high-volume receiver. He’s been a big-play threat all season but has only drawn targets on 22.7% of pass attempts, which ranks 44th among wide receivers. McLaurin has actually failed to record six receptions in all five games this season when he’s topped 100 receiving yards, indicating his boom-or-bust prospects. The Lions have been making up for a lack of personnel with elite coaching from defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn, who most recently stopped Justin Jefferson (three catches, 58 yards) with journeyman cornerback Amik Robertson. McLaurin roasted Tampa Bay’s backup corners last week but was erased by Falcons cornerback A.J. Terrell and contained by the Eagles’ corners twice this season. Detroit plays man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL, and McLaurin has a rough 27% win rate against man coverage, compared to a 50% win rate against zone.