Best NRFI/YRFI Betting Lines For Tuesday, April 29

We have a solid Tuesday slate of MLB action on tap, and that means plenty of games to evaluate for potential NRFI/YRFI betting options. There are multiple scenarios at play that appear to be strong candidates for either category, and we’ll dive into the top three below. 

NRFI and YRFI Odds for April 29

Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, 7:07 p.m. Eastern (NRFI)

Any time Garrett Crochet is on the docket, you’re halfway there to giving an NRFI bet serious consideration, and when he’s opposed by a pitcher the caliber of Bowden Francis, as is the case Tuesday, that essentially seals the deal.

Crochet gave up more than two earned runs for the first time in six starts his last time out against the Mariners, but he still recorded nine strikeouts over five innings and carries a 1.95 ERA and 1.05 WHIP into Tuesday’s confrontation with Toronto. 

He did give up runs in the first inning for the first time this season in that outing as well, yet he’s still holding batters to a .182 average in the opening frame while recording nine strikeouts in six first innings. Crochet has also enjoyed plenty of success against current Blue Jays bats, holding them to a collective .176 average and .528 OPS in 38 career plate appearances. 

Francis has been impressive in his own right early in games, pitching five spotless first innings so far. In those innings, he’s held opposing batters to a .188 average and .465 OPS. The right-hander hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any outing, and he’s one out from having posted quality starts in three of his last five trips to the mound. 

Francis has been very tough against current BoSox bats, as well, limiting them to the tune of a collective .103/.161/.172 slash line in 31 career encounters, a sample in which he’s recorded 11 strikeouts. The Red Sox are averaging a relatively modest 0.44 runs per first inning per road game, and the Blue Jays are averaging 0.36 runs per first inning in their own right, adding more fuel to the NRFI consideration.

Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies, 8:40 p.m. Eastern (YRFI)

Much like two quality arms are a main prerequisite for considering an NRFI bet, a Coors Field setting does the same for a YRFI wager, even in seasons when the Rockies aren’t exactly an offensive juggernaut. If there are two questionable arms taking the hill and one of them has a particularly problematic history against the opposition, that only serves to sweeten the pot.

AJ Smith-Shawver and German Marquez will face off on the mound, and they bring a combined 0-6 record while sporting respective ERAs of 4.61 and 9.30. Smith-Shawver hasn’t been awful by any stretch, but he’s pitched to plenty of contact while allowing 19 hits and eight walks over 13.2 innings. He’s also undeniably been on the right side of luck a good bit, considering he’s pitched to a career-high 15.0% barrel rate and also sports a .314 xBA, .553 xSLG and 6.84 xERA. 

Marquez’s ugly ERA spearheads an ugly collection of metrics that also includes a 2.02 WHIP, 47.1% left-on-base rate and .291 xBAA. The right-hander has been good about keeping the ball in the park, but he’s also been victimized by current Braves bats to the tune of a .345 average, 1.104 OPS, 11 extra-base hits and five walks over 63 career encounters. Two of the three batters Marquez is likely to face in the first inning, Alex Verdugo and Marcell Ozuna, are a combined 5-for-11 with two doubles, a homer, a walk and two RBI against him in their careers. 

YRFI bets are now 8-6 at Coors Field this season after Colorado scored three first-inning runs in Monday’s series opener, and they’re an MLB-best 14-4 in Atlanta’s road games. The combination of all these factors is just too much to ignore, and Marquez’s jaw-dropping 17.36 ERA and .391 BAA in five first innings this season adds yet another layer.

San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres, 9:40 p.m. Eastern (NRFI)

In stark contrast to the game we just broke down, this NL West clash features a pair of pitchers in Logan Webb and Nick Pivetta who could make runs extremely hard to come by. The game has opened with a total of as low as 6.5 runs at some sportsbooks, underscoring the expected offensive environment.

Webb is intimately familiar with the Padres’ lineup and has had some issues with the likes of Manny Machado (.344 average against in 34 career plate appearances). However, given their typical spots in the lineup, the two other bats who’ve really given him trouble, Gavin Sheets and Tyler Wade, aren’t likely to face him in the first inning unless something has already gone wrong. 

Webb has only given up two earned runs in six first innings this season, holding batters to a .217 average and recording an 8:3 K:BB in that sample. The righty holds a 1.98 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 10.9 K/9 and 0.2 HR/9 over 36.1 innings, and he’s yielded one earned run or less in four of his last five trips to the mound. 

For his part, Pivetta is in the midst of what is arguably the best stretch of his career, as he’s been nearly unhittable while fashioning a 4-1 record, 1.20 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 and 0.3 HR/9 over five starts. Pivetta’s .204 xBA and 2.78 xERA suggest his success is pretty legitimate, and his unblemished ERA, .167 BAA and 6:1 K:BB in five opening frames also inspire NRFI confidence. 

NRFI bets are also 10-6 in Padres home games this season, furthering the case for a quiet first inning.