Buffalo Bills vs. Washington Commanders NFL Player Props & Picks (9/24/23)

Buffalo Bills vs. Washington Commanders kicks off this Sunday at 1:00pm EST in Landover as a home game for the Commanders. The Bills are currently a -6.5 favorite and -260 on the moneyline while the total is set at 43. Expect the Commanders defense to give the Bills offensive line fits, giving value towards Josh Allen and James Cook unders for Buffalo Bills vs. Washington Commanders player props.

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It was a Bills bounce back win after an embarrassing week one loss to the Rodgers-less Jets, throttling the Raiders to the tune of 38-10. Josh Allen now has to face a much tougher defensive test, having a history of making ill-advised throws when under pressure. The rest of the offense may suffer in correlation to Allen’s woes, making Buffalo Bills unders the theme of the game.

James Cook Under 55.5 Rushing Yards

After cruising past the worst defense in the league in Def EPA, the Bills now face another tough test in the Washington Commanders. While not exactly a well-oiled machine on both ends of the field, the Commanders do excel on the defensive side. Especially on the defensive line with Chase Young and Montez Sweat manning the ends.

This spells disaster for the Buffalo Bills as any sort of defensive line production rattles their star quarterback and blows up the ground game. Factor in the Bills fielding one of the worst offensive lines that they have had in years past and this has the makings for early outs empty possessions.

As for James Cook, he will struggle to bounce on the outsides with Sweat and Young effectively pushing back the ends, forcing the speedster to find success up the gut. Not exactly an ideal recipe for success when trying to clear a rushing over prop.

Josh Allen Over 0.5 Interception

Not exactly on the Jet’s standard of defensive success, but the Commanders defensive line that excels on generating pressure to the backfield. Expect Allen to be under constant pressure, being forced to scramble and throw into tight windows on the run.

Zips down the field may have worked against the Raiders, but the Commanders secondary is a drastic step up in quality of defense to the Raiders dead last Def EPA metric. Kendall Fuller serves as the Commanders ballhawk while rookie Emmanuel Forbes came into the league as one of the better man corners outside of Devon Witherspoon. If Allen tries to get as aggressive as we saw against the Jets, then we can expect plenty of turnover worthy throws for a potential chance of clearing this.

Josh Allen Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

Just because we are banking on Josh Allen to throw an interception doesn’t mean we can’t back him to throw for a few touchdowns as well. Josh Allen was the favorite to lead the league in interceptions and the MVP favorite at one point this season after all.

HOOTING and HOLLERING at this Josh Allen touchdown throw pic.twitter.com/dO2sSgvdGe

— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) September 18, 2023

This wager is more so fading their rush success as James Cook will find himself with less-than-ideal gaps in the line to exploit while running against this Washington defensive front. Especially inside the 20 where the field is shortened on the defensive side and their linebackers can creep more up towards the line to give support.

While backing Josh Allen to find pass success when under pressure is not exactly a great idea, it does serve as the Bills best bet to punch it in the end zone. Especially with linebackers having to stay on an island, spying the quarterback’s run prowess. This allows Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis to pick the gaps in coverage from the back end against stationary linebackers, opening windows for Allen to throw to.

Sam Howell Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

It may be juicy, but this is a tough mark for Howell to clear against this Bills secondary. When at full health the trio of Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, and Tre’Davious White are the most formidable secondary in football.

That is exactly what Sam Howell has to throw against, doing so with a very weak receiving unit. Factor in Logan Thomas being ruled out and Howell loses one of his most lethal red zone targets on this offense.

The Commanders will already struggle to consistently move the ball down the field, being better off handing it over to Brian Robinson in the few opportunities that they will get inside the 20.

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