Boise State vs. Washington kicks off this Saturday at 3:30pm EST in Seattle as a home game for the Huskies. Washington is currently a -14.5 favorite and -675 on the moneyline while the total is set at 59.5. Read on for more Boise State vs. Washington best bets and predictions as the Huskies should have no issue with winning outright.
Boise State Vs. Washington Prediction & Best Bet
Last season the Washington Huskies finished 7-2 in conference play and missed out on the conference championship by a tiebreaker to Utah. Expectations are now at an all-time high heading into this year as they return a majority of starters on both sides of the ball. Starters that include star quarterback Michael Penix Jr who can make some serious noise as a potential Heisman candidate.
The return of Michael Penix Jr cannot be overstated as he revitalized his career last season by throwing for an incredible 4,641 yards, 31 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. This led to the Huskies finishing second in Pass Success Rate and ninth in Pass PPA. Even more impressive is that a majority of the damage was done by being consistent, relying on accurate short throws over Explosiveness.
With elite continuity at every position of the offense, Washington should have no issue with finding the same success they did last season right out of the gate.
What scares me off from backing them on the spread is that Boise State poses as an elite pass stopping unit. They finished last year first in the nation in Def Pass Success Rate, yet 130th in Def Pass Explosiveness. This forces Penix Jr to take more downfield throws, an area he shied away from last year. With that said, I will look to tie in their moneyline with someone else in a moneyline parlay than take an ill-advised -14.5.
Boise State Vs. Washington Odds
Michael Penix and company are in a prime position to start off on the right foot as oddsmakers opened the Huskies as a -14.5 favorite. Bettors have yet to nudge them off the number, keeping Washington’s spread the same as the opener. I personally advocate for backing football numbers and am willing to be patient for a potential -14. Should that not appear before kickoff, I will tie in their moneyline with someone else for a moneyline parlay.
As for the total, points are expected to be scored at a quick pace as oddsmakers opened the number at 59. Depending on where you look, this number has moved in both directions and can be found at either 58.5 or 59.5. The total is an instant pass for me as I want to see if the Huskies defense improves after bringing back nearly everyone this year. They were abysmal last season, ranking 92nd in Def Success Rate and 111th in Def Havoc.
Boise State Vs. Washington Key Matchups
Who takes over running back duties after Cameron Davis was announced out for the rest of the season? Does Washington’s continuity on defense lead to improved results?
A Stable of Running Backs
Devastating news came out of Washington’s training camp as it was announced that running back Cameron Davis will miss the rest of the season with an injury suffered in practice. He finished last season rushing for 522 yards and 13 touchdowns and was expected to take over starting duties heading into this season.
Will Nixon and Washington score a touchdown on their first drive of the night #CollegeFootball
— The College Experience (@TCEonSGPN) September 25, 2022
With Davis out, Washington may look to deploy multiple running backs until someone separates himself as a true starter. Mississippi State transfer Dillon Johnson will be thrusted right into the role, splitting carries with Huskie’s backup Will Nixon. Johnson rushed for 488 yards and three touchdowns for the Bulldogs last season.
Continuity on Defense
While Washington excelled on the offensive end, it was a drastic difference on the defensive front. While continuity isn’t a sure sign of fixing their issues, it is a good indicator that they will at least improve. Washington brings back 85% of their defense per TARP ratings.
Better yet for the Huskie defense is that their returning experience resides in their front seven. This was a strength for the defense as they were well above average in generating a pass rush. Should they improve even more in that front, this relaxes the secondary as they do not have to scramble in coverage for a prolonged period of time.