Brewers vs. Yankees: Predictions, Odds, Best Bets, Starting Lineups (9/9/23)

While the Yankees are already effectively on to 2024, with youngsters Jasson Domingiuez, Austin Wells, and Everson Pereira up in the bigs, the Milwaukee Brewers are still wrapped in a division race in the NL Central. Saturday’s matchup definitely has different stakes for the two squads, but they’ll both be pushing hard to achieve their respective goals nonetheless. Let’s take a look at the odds for this matchup, where my prediction is a Yankees win

Brewers vs. Yankees Prediction

After consecutive losses snapped a five-game winning streak, the Yankees are right back to reality, below .500 and effectively done in the American League playoff race. But that doesn’t mean the season is over for the fans- every day is another chance to watch Jasson Dominguez, the most electrifying prospect in recent memory.

After incredible levels of hype when he signed for a staggering $5.1 million dollars as a 16 year old out of the Dominican Republic, Dominguez, nicknamed “the Martian” for his otherworldly physical profile and skill set, has finally made his pro debut, and has made history along the way. He’s cracked four homers in his first seven games, including one against Justin Verlander on his first-ever MLB swing, and one in Friday’s game one of this three-game set against Milwaukee.

The Brewers need these games much more, as they lead the resurgent Chicago Cubs in the NL Central race by three games, a lead that has been even smaller than that in recent days. With a three-game set against Chicago looming at the end of the regular season, the Brewers would surely like to grow that division lead, or at least maintain it so that anything other than a series sweep would win them the title.

Wade Miley will take the mound for the Brewers in this weekend matinee, amidst what has been a pretty solid season, although FIP suggests that he’s been getting slightly lucky. The veteran has pitched to contact, with his strikeout rate at nearly a career-low, but it’s working well enough so far. He’ll be throwing against Michael King, who has been one of the Yankees’ very best arms all year, albeit mostly out of the bullpen. Still, even King’s relief appearances have often been long ones, and he’s more than capable of putting in a great start.

With such a strong pitching matchup, I’m not quite sure how the total ended up at 9, but we are going to take advantage and absolutely hammer the under. The result is a tougher one, after the Brewers absolutely decimated the Yankees on Friday, but with King on the mound and a full house in the Bronx to cheer on the Martian, I’ll have to side with the Yankees. Let’s avoid the spread in what could be a close one, and stick to the slightly-chalky moneyline.

Brewers vs. Yankees Prediction: Yankees ML (-150), o9 runs (-105)

Brewers vs. Yankees Odds

The Yankees are home favorites with -150 odds compared to +125 compared for the Brewers. The run total is set at 9, with the under slightly favored at -115 compared to -105 for the over.

Brewers vs. Yankees Key Matchups

Wade Miley vs. Power Hitters

Part of the reason Miley’s FIP is a lot less flattering than his ERA is that he’s limited baserunners well, but struggles to keep the ball in the park with 1.4 home runs allowed per 9 innings of work. This is a problematic Achilles heel to have when it comes to facing the Yankees. For all of their offensive shortcomings, they put the ball out of the park- their 201 homers are tied for fourth in the bigs.

Of course, Dominguez’s four homers in seven games have been an enormous boost to the offense, as he’s already hitting third in the lineup. The Yankees also employ the best power hitter in the game, if not the history of the game; Aaron Judge, who has missed nearly two months’ worth of games but is still fourth in the AL with 31 home runs a year after hitting 62. Gleyber Torres is next on the team list in a resurgent year with 25 so far, while Giancarlo Stanton recently hit the 400th of his career, and has 22 in 88 games this season. Rookie shortstop Anthony Volpe has hit an impressive 20 in his debut campaign, while DJ LeMahieu is starting to rediscover his power stroke. This lineup is loaded with power bats, one reason I have them winning and helping to hit the over in my Brewers vs. Yankees prediction.

Michael King vs. Top of the Lineup

King, who has mostly worked out of the bullpen, has accumulated a 6.75 ERA in the first inning in his few starts this season, but has yet to allow a single earned run in a second, third, fourth or fifth inning. If he’s able to get through that early hurdle, it should be smooth sailing, so let’s take a look at hitters at the top of the Brewers lineup, who could get to him before he has a chance to settle in.

Former MVP Christian Yelich leads things off for the Brewers, he’s not in his very best form but he’s still been solid at the top of the lineup with a .363 OBP. Up next is William Contreras, one of the better offensive catchers in the league with an OPS north of .800, and then Carlos Santana has been solid since coming over from the Pirates. If runners get on base, King will have to deal with Sal Frelick, another solid on-base threat, and familiar foe Willy Adames, the team’s home run leader with 24.

Brewers vs. Yankees Starting Lineups

Brewers Starting Lineup
LF C. Yelich L
C W. Contreras R
1B C. Santana S
CF S. Frelick L
SS W. Adames R
DH R. Tellez L
RF M. Canha R
2B B. Turang L
3B A. Monasterio R

Yankees Starting Lineup
1B D. LeMahieu R
RF A. Judge R
CF J. Dominguez S
2B G. Torres R
DH G. Stanton R
C A. Wells L
SS A. Volpe R
LF E. Pereira R
3B O. Peraza R

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