On Sunday (10/1/23), the Denver Broncos face the Chicago Bears. Find a full preview of the game and the latest betting odds here. Also, get Broncos Vs. Bears predictions and best bets below as our best bet is over 46 points.
Denver Broncos Vs. Chicago Bears Prediction & Best Bet
The Broncos and Bears both sit at 0-3 after plenty of offseason hype around each team. Denver just allowed 70 points to the Dolphins in a historically embarrassing loss. They’ve now allowed 122 points through three games, the seventh-most of all time. Meanwhile, Chicago suffered a 41-10 loss to the Chiefs.
Denver still sits as a 3.5-point road favorite in this game given the respect for head coach Sean Payton and quarterback Russell Wilson. However, there are foundational cracks in Broncos Country that Payton can’t rectify in one year. The defense is shockingly bad – it’s dead last in EPA per play allowed by a significant margin.
However, Chicago has plenty of issues of its own. The Bears are 31st in EPA/play on both offense and defense, and the organizational problems run deep. Head coach Matt Eberflus will call defensive plays for the remainder of the season, and the early results have been poor – the Bears have averaged over 35 points per game.
Russell Wilson has actually been pretty effective this season and he should have success against the Bears defense. Wilson has averaged 7.6 yards per attempt (sixth) and he’s third in completion percentage over expectation. As Jerry Jeudy works his way back from an injury and rookie Marvin Mims gets more involved, this offense has juice.
The Bears’ offense has been putrid so far this season, but they get a nice reprieve against a Denver defense that has fallen off a cliff under new coordinator Vance Joseph. The Broncos are dealing with significant injuries in the secondary, and combined with their lack of consistent pass rush, their pass defense has been awful.
Justin Fields hasn’t been put in a position to succeed this season, and he ranks 33rd out of 34 quarterbacks in adjusted EPA per play. However, the talent that made him a first round pick is still there. After tough road games against the Buccaneers and Chiefs’ stout defenses, Fields should bounce back against Denver’s unit.
I’ll be in attendance for this game with my esteemed colleague, and when we made plans to go to this game, we certainly didn’t expect these teams to be sitting at 0-3. However, I believe we’ll at least see some points scored in this game and I like the over 46 points to hit here.
Denver Broncos Vs. Chicago Bears Prediction & Best Bet: Over 46 Points
Denver Broncos Vs. Chicago Bears Betting Odds
The Broncos are currently 3.5-point road favorites against the Bears with a generous Moneyline sitting around -160. The total for this game sits at 46 points and it doesn’t appear that weather will have any effect on the game.
Denver Broncos Vs. Chicago Bears Key Injuries
While these teams have issues that go beyond just player availability, they haven’t been fortunate enough to avoid injuries so far this season. The Bears lost starting left tackle Braxton Jones to a neck injury as he and second-year defensive back Kyler Gordon are on the IR. Defensive backs Eddie Jackson and Jaylon Johnson are listed as questionable.
Denver has had several injuries in the secondary, as well. Defensive backs Caden Sterns, K’Waun Williams, and P.J. Locke are on IR while safety Justin Simmons missed last week’s game. Edge rusher Frank Clark is listed as questionable along with linebacker Josey Jewell.
Denver Broncos Vs. Chicago Bears Key Matchups
While these teams aren’t succeeding to the level either fan base expected, they have talented players worth watching in this game. Let’s take a look at some of the players who will determine the outcome of this matchup.
D.J. Moore Vs. Patrick Surtain II
The Bears acquired wide receiver D.J. Moore when they sent the first overall pick to the Carolina Panthers, and it’s been an up and down start for him in Chicago. He finished with six catches for 104 yards against the Buccaneers but has been held under 50 yards in each of his other two games.
Moore’s life doesn’t get much easier this week against All Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain II. Surtain had a rough outing last week against the Dolphins, but the larger sample tells us he’s one of the best players in the NFL at his position. He’ll likely shadow Moore in this game, leaving the Bears to look for other options in the passing game.
DJ MOORE HAS SCORED A TOUCHDOWN 🚨
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) September 24, 2023
Marvin Mims Jr. Vs. Bears’ Secondary
One of the bright spots of the early season for the Broncos has been the play of rookie wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. – he has just 7 catches this year but he’s taken those for 195 yards and a touchdown. He leads the NFL with an absurd rate of 7.22 yards per route run. It’s obvious that he needs to be on the field more moving forward.
The Bears’ secondary has been a sieve to start this season as they rank 28th in PFF team coverage grades. Rookie corner Tyrique Stevenson has struggled while Jaylon Johnson is the only defensive back on the roster with 80+ snaps and an above average PFF grade. Mims should have more opportunities for explosive plays in this game.
The only explanation of why Marvin Mims isn’t getting more offensive snaps has to be that they’re tanking.
Any time he touches the ball he is electric⚡️
— Andrew Wright | Email Copywriter (@CopyWrighty) September 24, 2023