Denver Broncos vs. Miami Dolphins NFL Player Props & Picks (9/24/23)

The Denver Broncos battle the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. Check out below for Broncos vs. Dolphins player prop odds, predictions, and best bets, including Javonte Williams, Tyreek Hill, and Durham Smythe.

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Denver Broncos vs. Miami Dolphins Player Prop Picks

Which players will thrive in the Broncos vs. Dolphins game? Can Tua Tagovailoa hold his title as the current passing yards NFL leader? Will Sean Payton and Russell Wilson cook?

Javonte Williams Over 2.5 Receptions (+130 BMGM)

Williams has 9 targets and 6 receptions across the first two games, and he ranks second in target share behind only Courtland Sutton. Coach Sean Payton loves to get pass-catching running backs involved, and Russell Wilson may not have a choice here in regards to frequently dumping the ball to Williams. 38 percent of Wilson’s dropbacks have been under pressure, which is the 11th highest rate in the NFL. Miami’s defensive line featuring Jaelan Phillps, Bradley Chubb, Christian Wilkins, and Zach Sieler will be able to harass Wilson and force numerous checkdowns.

Javonte Williams needs to secure three receptions about 43 percent of the time for the bet to have a positive expected value. He has three receptions in 11 of 23 career games, which is 47 percent.

Tyreek Hill Anytime Touchdown (-115 FD)

Tyreek ranks top five across the NFL in targets, receptions, and yards, but he leads the NFL in red zone targets and inside the ten-yard-line targets while pacing the Dolphins in First Read Target Share per Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points. His usage is absurd, and his speed and route running combined with Mike McDaniel’s’ innovative offense mean he’s set for a career year.

Denver isn’t exactly an ideal matchup, as star cornerback Patrick Surtain II awaits him. However, Denver’s secondary outside of Surtain has allowed a plethora of explosive plays, and I trust McDaniel to scheme Hill open.

Hill needs to score a touchdown about 53 percent of the time here.

Durham Smythe Over 2.5 Receptions (-160 DK)

Smythe has six receptions on ten targets for the season, and he’s the clear third option on an offense that loves to throw the ball. Denver allowed the second most receptions to tight ends last year (5.8 per game), although they have tightened up more so far this year (4 per game). With Jaylen Waddle questionable due to a concussion, it’s likely that Smythe sees a decent bump in usage whether Waddle plays or not. Factor in the degree to which Denver’s secondary has been torched, and it’s a solid day for Smythe to snag three catches.

He must accomplish this about 61 percent of the time.

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2021-22 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs about analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions and NBA Analysis Network.

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