Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Philadelphia Eagles NFL First Touchdown: Expert Picks & Predictions (9/25/23)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to face the Philadelphia Eagles in Monday Night Football. Check out below for Buccaneers vs. Eagles First Touchdown best bets, as well as a player prop search tool to optimize odds shopping.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Philadelphia Eagles First Touchdown Picks
The goal of the First Touchdown prop is to identify which players will score the first touchdown of the game. Who will do so in the Buccaneers vs. Eagles contest? Are Philadelphia’s receivers mispriced?
AJ Brown First Touchdown (+900 BMGM)
I know AJ Brown hasn’t stuffed the stat sheet so far…but +900? Entering this week, Brown ranked third across the NFL in First Read Target Share and fifth in Air Yards Share per Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points. He notched 11 touchdowns last season with Philadelphia and nearly caught a deep shot last week. The submersed metrics all indicate that Brown is set to explode, and he faces a mediocre Tampa Bay secondary that is allowing the 12th most passing touchdowns and ranks 23rd in PFF’s coverage grade. Meanwhile, their solid run defense centered around Vita Vea has a fighting chance at forcing red zone throws.
On the other side, Philadelphia’s elite defensive line will snuff out the run game and place pressure on Mayfield. Tampa Bay can move the ball through the air, but it’s far more likely that the Eagles strike first given the defenses involved. Plus, red zone struggles may haunt the Buccaneers. 66.6 percent of Philadelphia’s red zone trips have resulted in a touchdown, while Tampa Bay sits at a measly 33.3 percent.
Brown must score first about 10 percent of the time for the bet to have a positive expected value.
DeVonta Smith First Touchdown (+1000 FD)
Smith at +1000 is another mispriced line. Entering the week per Ryan Heath, Smith ranked ninth in First Read Target Share and seventh in Air Yards Share. In other words, Hurts is relying on the Brown and Smith duo more than any other quarterback and receiver duo in the NFL. Smith caught seven touchdowns last year, and he already has collected two to start the season. Tampa Bay won’t be able to stop both Brown and Smith, so it’s a pick your poison situation. Given their red zone struggles and superior run defense as stated above, it’s looking like a Brown or Smith game. Goedert could be a threat, but Tampa Bay’s elite coverage linebackers slash that threat to a much smaller probability.
Smith must score the first touchdown about 9 percent of the time for the bet to have a positive expected value.
Mike Evans First Buccaneers Touchdown (+375 BMGM)
Mike Evans appears ready for revenge in his contract year after Tampa Bay didn’t offer what he deemed a fair extension. He’s unleashing his disappointment on defenses, as he has 237 yards and two touchdowns through the first two weeks. Evans’ chemistry with Baker Mayfield on deep attempts is impressive, and he has the tools to break through this injured Eagles secondary.
Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter should absolutely stuff Tampa Bay’s poor running game, so they will have to throw if they reach the red zone. Along with being a deep threat, Evans can also win jump balls in the end zone. Look for Mayfield to find his favorite target here.
Evans has to score Tampa Bay’s first touchdown about 21 percent of the time.