Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints kicks off this Sunday at 1:00pm EST in New Orleans as a home game for the Saints. The Saints are currently a -3 favorite and -166 on the moneyline while the total is set at 40. Expect defense to be on full display from both units, giving values towards Rachaad White and Baker Mayfield player prop unders for this Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints matchup.
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After a shocking start to the season, reality hit the Bucs hard after a thrashing from the Philadelphia Eagles. The ground game was practically non-existent, now having to face another ferocious defensive line in the New Orleans Saints. Speaking of the Saints, it was a heartbreaking loss after giving up a 17-0 lead to the Green Bay Packers, now having to find answers in a pinch with their new quarterback Jameis Winston.
Rachaad White Under 52.5 Rushing Yards
After mightily struggling to establish the run last season, it has once again come back to bite them so far into this year. Rachaad White just turned in an abysmal outing against the Eagles front seven, rushing for 38 yards on 14 attempts for an average of 2.7 yards per carry.
While the Saints defensive front is not on the same caliber of the Eagles, they are still an elite unit in their own right and will be in a good position to abuse the Bucs hobbled offensive line. They excel at pushing back the interior, collapsing the pocket and forcing plays to happen on the outside at a high rate.
Rachaad White has developed into an increasing role as a pass catcher, and he may find himself with limited opportunities to clear this mark as a pure rusher. Especially with Baker under duress, opting into checkdowns and dump offs while the Saints front comes crashing down.
The odds also indicated that this is supposed to be a close one, limiting the potential for a blowout on the Bucs end which would call for a heavier dose of the run. This number is crashing down in some sportsbooks so be sure to have as many outs as possible and buy the best number.
Rachaad White Over 3.5 Receptions
Correlating this prop with the previously mentioned one, the Bucs would be better off implementing a heavier dose of the pass against this Saints front seven. Already struggling to establish the run, success will be far and few in between when they decide to hand it off.
RACHAAD WHITE CAN’T GET OUT OF THE BACKFIELD.
Eagles get the safety. pic.twitter.com/58AHlT0LGe
— Arye Pulli (@AryePulli) September 26, 2023
Factor in the Saints ability to generate a pass rush against the Bucs weak offensive line and White will find himself with plenty of opportunities to receive dump offs on the side. He’s also played a heavier role in passing downs as a reliable target, getting extra opportunities to clear this number.
Baker Mayfield Under 34.5 Longest Completion
While Baker Mayfield certainly has the arm to give this mark a scare, let alone the deep threat talent with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, it’s the time in the pocket that I’m more concerned about. When under duress, Baker will have to find more success with short throws, playing towards the under as the Saints limit explosiveness.
The Saints secondary is also well above average in limiting downfield success, potentially walling off Evans and Godwin with singular coverage and help side coverage from their safeties. New Orleans may also benefit from extra coverage as they should be more than capable of generating back field pressure by only rushing their front four and dropping back seven.
Alvin Kamara Anytime Touchdown
The Saints star dual threat running back makes his return from suspension at just the right time as this offense deals with an identity crisis. Just when Derek Carr was starting to make a connection with his receivers, he was knocked out with a shoulder injury for the foreseeable future. That puts Jameis Winston under center, a middling quarterback who mightily struggles with consistency.
That may force Kamara into a heavy dose of the run right away, serving as a more consistent factor for this offense in comparison to the Saints pass attack under Winston. Especially in the red zone, being able to both run it up the gut against the Bucs defensive line or play a role in the pass attack for extra opportunities to cash this prop.