Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals NFL First Touchdown: Expert Picks & Predictions (11/5/23)

The Buffalo Bills meet the Cincinnati Bengals in Sunday Night Football (11/5/23). Get Bills vs. Bengals First Touchdown best bets, as well as a player prop search tool to optimize odds shopping for Thursday night’s game.

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Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals First Touchdown Picks

The goal of the First Touchdown prop is to identify which player will score the first touchdown of the game. Who will score first in the Bills vs. Bengals game?

Stefon Diggs First Bills TD (+340 FD) & Gabe Davis First Bills TD (+700 FD)

Buffalo and Cincinnati both possess a similar chance to score the first touchdown, so targeting team first touchdowns in this matchup is wiser. 

17 of Buffalo’s 26 offensive touchdowns have been through the air, or 65.3 percent. To further zoom in, Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are responsible for 11 of those 17 receiving touchdowns (64.7 percent) and 20 of Buffalo’s 38 red zone targets (52.6 percent). Finally, they have scored Buffalo’s first touchdown in 4 of 8 games. In summation, Diggs and Davis both considerably lead the Bills in first touchdown equity, as it’s essentially a two-pronged attack. 

60 percent of touchdowns surrendered by Cincinnati have been passing touchdowns. Their outside corners will struggle to handle Diggs and Davis’ speed, and Josh Allen’s elite arm talent bodes well for them. 

Diggs needs to score Buffalo’s first touchdown about 22 percent of the time, while Davis must accomplish this feat about 12 percent of the time. Based on their first touchdown equity, they should clear those marks with ease. 

Ja’Marr Chase First Bengals TD (+320 FD)

Ja’Marr Chase started the season slow, but Joe Burrow’s improved health has jumpstarted the superstar wide receiver. Over his last five games, he’s averaged 117.2 receiving yards and 0.8 touchdowns – that’s on pace for 1,992 yards and 13 touchdowns. He should shred this injured Buffalo secondary. Chase ranks third across the NFL in red zone targets too, and he’s the clear top option for Joe Burrow. 

Cincinnati’s unreliable offensive line is struggling to create lanes, so they own a mere two rushing touchdowns across the entire season compared to 10 passing touchdowns. Therefore, selecting a Bengals receiver is far more logical. 

Chase must score Cincinnati’s first touchdown about 23 percent of the time.

Andrei Iosivas First Bengals TD (+1500 FD)

The rookie receiver out of Princeton has scored in two consecutive games now. Cincinnati’s red zone trust in Iosivas has worked beautifully, so the 6’3” wide receiver likely continues to be on the field during scoring chances. Considering all of the attention that Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd draw, Iosivas can slip by unnoticed and continue to maintain a massive red zone target to touchdown ratio. 

Iosivas must score Cincinnati’s first touchdown about 6 percent of the time.

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2022 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs regarding analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions.

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