Get Buffalo Bills Vs. Cincinnati Bengals player prop picks & odds for the (1/2/23) matchup.
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Buffalo Bills Vs. Cincinnati Bengals Player Prop Picks
The last Monday Night Football game of the 2022 NFL season is surely its best as the Bills and Bengals are two top Super Bowl contenders in the AFC. Josh Allen and Joe Burrow are top five quarterbacks in the league, but this will mark the first matchup between the two superstar passers. In a game like this, player prop value should be there for the taking.
In this article, I’ll break down the top player props in this game. You can find more coverage for this and every NFL game on the Lineups YouTube channel. In addition, be sure to use the Bills vs. Bengals player prop search tool above to compare odds from different sportsbooks. Let’s get to work.
Dawson Knox Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-110 BetMGM) and Anytime Touchdown (+225 DraftKings)
The beginning of the season was tremendously difficult for Dawson Knox after his younger brother Luke tragically passed away. However, Knox has come on strong as of late. After averaging just 26.1 receiving yards per game over his first seven games, he’s up to 45.8 receiving yards over his last seven games.
Knox has been more involved in the offense as of late with a 16.1% target share (five per game) and 78.1% route run rate over his last six games. Over the same span, the Bengals are allowing the seventh-most receiving yards to tight ends. Knox has also scored in three straight games.
In 2019, when the Bills last played the Bengals (without Burrow), Knox had three catches for 67 yards and a touchdown. That was Lou Anarumo’s first season as defensive coordinator, before he had his system fully installed with the players he wanted. However, it was also a year before Allen made his seismic leap in 2020.
The Bengals will play this smart. The focus of their coverage will be Stefon Diggs, and there won’t be coverage busts for Gabriel Davis to take advantage of deep. Isaiah McKenzie and Cole Beasley will see tough coverage in the slot from Mike Hilton. That leaves Knox as a massive part of the offense, and he’ll get it done.
Tyler Boyd Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel) and Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+340 FanDuel)
The whole world will be all over Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins in this game, but it’s actually Tyler Boyd who has the easiest matchup here. Boyd will primarily see coverage from slot corner Taron Johnson, who has allowed a 72.7% catch rate and a 108.7 passer rating in coverage this season.
Boyd’s volume has been hit or miss, but he hasn’t – he ranks 19th in open rate this season. It’s worth noting that Tre’Davious White is starting to return to form as he’s recovering from his ACL injury – he has allowed just a 52% catch rate on 142 coverage snaps, which would be a career low for him.
With White spending time covering Chase on the perimeter, this could be a game where we see Boyd’s target share increase from his normal 13.5% rate. That’s especially true if Hayden Hurst is still sidelined by a calf injury, although he did practice in full on Thursday, for what it’s worth.
There was a stretch earlier this season where Boyd had 30+ receiving yards in eight straight games, but he’s been under that in two of his last three. However, in this paced up environment with an easy matchup in the slot, I like Boyd to have a great game and perhaps find the end zone for the sixth time this season.
James Cook Longest Rush Over 15.5 Yards
Dynamic rookie running back James Cook’s usage has been hit or miss this season, but a constant has been his ability to generate chunk yardage. Cook has a long run of 16+ yards in three of his last four games and in seven of his 15 games this season. As his usage has continued to increase, the likelihood of that happening has too.
Cook ranks 11th in juke rate and first in breakaway run rate this season, and 53.5% of his rushing yardage this season has come on runs of 15+ yards. He’s also tied with Breece Hall at 5.8 YPC, the highest of any running back with 80+ carries.
While Devin Singletary will continue to see heavy usage, Cook saw 11 rushing attempts last week, and he’s played at least 40% of snaps in three of the team’s last four games. That’s more than enough for him to rip off at least one long run in this game, even with the Bengals allowing the fourth-fewest rushing yards over the past six weeks.