Buffalo Bills Vs. Detroit Lions NFL Player Props & Picks (11/24/22)
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Get Buffalo Bills Vs. Detroit Lions player prop picks & odds for the (11/24/22) matchup
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Buffalo Bills Vs. Detroit Lions Player Prop Picks
To kick off Turkey Day this year, we’re getting an intriguing matchup between teams from opposite conferences. In a weird turn of events, the Bills are playing their second straight game in Detroit. Their matchup against the Browns last week was relocated to Ford Field due to the massive snowstorm that hit Buffalo, so they stayed in the area for a few days waiting for this game to take place.
In this article, I’ll break down my favorite player prop values from this Thanksgiving Day game with hopes of making you some extra cash to celebrate the holiday. You can use the Bills vs. Lions player prop search tool above to compare odds from different sports books and find the best values in your specific market. Let’s get to work.
Gabriel Davis Under 3.5 Receptions (+105 DraftKings)
PFF publishes statistics on utilization of man and zone coverage, and I love using these metrics to gain insight into the defensive matchups we should expect to see. The site hasn’t posted an article including Week 11 games, but entering last week, the Lions had played man coverage at a 44.1% rate, the fourth-most in the NFL.
Gabriel Davis has been a different player when faced with man coverage this season. He’s seeing a 59.3% target share on his snaps against zone defense with 1.77 yards per route run, but that falls to a 22.2% target share and 0.86 yards per route run against man coverage, per PFF.
Over the last two weeks, Davis has come up with six and five catches, but it came against the Vikings and Browns. The most recent data point for the Browns on the PFF site had them playing 11.1% man coverage in Week 10 while the Vikings played 19.2% man coverage against the Bills in their matchup.
All this is to say that the Lions’ man-heavy defense is a bad thing for Davis’s chances to make a significant impact. Josh Allen has also attempted under 20 passes in three of his last four games, and it’s fair to think that he will likely be on the lower side of attempts with the Bills significant favorites and Allen still nursing his elbow injury.
You can find plus value on the under for this prop across the board, and I’ll be putting my money there. I’d lean that direction over Davis’s yardage total since he leads the NFL with 21.1 yards per reception. He had a game with 3 catches for 171 yards earlier this season, so I’ll avoid a backbreaking long reception here.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 7.5 Receptions (+115 DraftKings)
I spoke about Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yardage prop and liking the over on 74.5 yards on the YouTube channel this week. I still believe that’s a strong play, but the better value might be over 7.5 receptions given the plus value you can get on that prop.
You’re getting solid value on St. Brown’s props at the moment due to his issues with injuries earlier in the year, but those are in the rearview mirror now. In his last 13 games not impacted by injury, St. Brown is averaging 7.8 receptions per game, and he’s been over this prop in nine of those.
Meanwhile, the Bills’ injuries in the secondary help set this up as a profitable spot for St. Brown. Buffalo will still be without two of their elite secondary talents in Tre’Davious White and Micah Hyde for this matchup while the absence of Gregory Rousseau made their pass-rush more one-dimensional.
Buffalo ranks just 28th in pass defense EPA over the last four weeks, partially due to those injuries, so this isn’t as concerning a matchup as you might expect on the surface. Plus, the Bills being heavy favorites could push the Lions into a more pass-heavy approach. To avoid heartbreak, consider splitting your bet between St. Brown’s receiving yards and receptions props.
Josh Allen Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+155 DraftKings)
For our final player prop, let’s go with a pure value play on Josh Allen. It’s been a slog for him recently with just four passing touchdowns in his last four games, and his red-zone struggles have been amplified as he has the second-worst QBR in the red zone and has thrown 3 interceptions near the goal-line after just two from 2018-2021.
However, this should be a game where he can bust out of that slump. The Lions have allowed a league-high 31.7% of drives to end in a touchdown this season, and 46% of Bills’ drives have reached the red zone or scored prior, which is also the highest rate in the NFL.
In other words, Allen will be around the goal-line quite a bit against a weak pass defense that struggles in the red zone. While Detroit’s pass defense has been improving, they still rank just 23rd in pass defense DVOA over the course of the full season. The expected absence of cornerback Jeff Okudah would also be significant here.
At +155 odds, there’s enough juice to make this prop worth the squeeze, but I’d only be looking to play a half unit on this due to the apparent effects of Josh Allen’s elbow injury on his ability to make accurate throws. Still, let’s hope he can break out of his slump in a big way to kick off Thanksgiving.
