Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Player Props (11/7/21)

With one of the largest point spreads of the week, these two teams are on opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of competitiveness. The Bills have a 5-2 record and sit atop the AFC East while the Jaguars are 1-6 and are just a half-game ahead of the Texans in the AFC South. While this game isn’t of the headline-stealing, popcorn-eating variety, it’s still one where we can find some player prop value if we look hard enough.

It’s been difficult to trust Zack Moss this season, and the Bills’ running back has only surpassed this yardage mark twice all season. That being said, this is a game script that is set up to feature the run game for Buffalo, something that is rarely the case against more competitive teams. In games against the Chiefs, Texans, and Washington, all of which were blowouts, Moss saw an average of 12.6 rushing attempts per game. The Jaguars’ run defense is actually pretty solid typically, allowing the third-fewest rushing yards per attempt, but Moss would only need about 11 carries to hit this number at that rate. Moss may not be the most exciting player, but in a great game script he should easily see double-digit carries and I like his chances to get over 40 yards with that workload.

Dan Arnold Over 36.5 Receiving Yards

In his past three games with the Jaguars, Arnold is seeing 7.6 targets and 5.3 catches per game. On a 10 yards per reception clip, he’s averaging 53 receiving yards per game over that span. Arnold was a clear priority addition for the team’s front office, and it’s proven to be a good one as he’s formed a strong connection with rookie passer Trevor Lawrence. The Bills’ pass defense has been elite across the board, and it’s allowing the sixth-fewest receiving yards to the tight end position. However, if there’s one person Jacksonville will look to target it will continue to be Arnold as a release valve in the offense for Lawrence. Against a stout pass rush, those short-area targets will be a necessity and I expect Arnold to see a hefty target share in this matchup.

Stefon Diggs Longest Reception: Over 25.5 Yards

We here at Lineups love targeting longest reception props, as all it takes is one play to hit your bet. I knew I wanted to pick one of those against the Jaguars who rank last in the NFL in pass defense DVOA and have allowed 34 explosive plays on 236 total passes, a league-leading 14.4% rate. Diggs has only hit a long reception of 26+ yards in three of his seven games this season, but those have come in games against the Dolphins, Texans, and Chiefs, all of whom Buffalo beat by a significant margin. In a similar high-scoring, blowout-type game script, Diggs should be able to bust loose for a long play, particularly against a defense that is prone to blown coverage assignments.

Trevor Lawrence Over 1.5 Interceptions

If you want to drink the juice, taking Lawrence over 0.5 interceptions is pretty justifiable. However, I see value on him to throw over 1.5 interceptions at close to 2-to-1 odds on some sportsbooks. The Bills have 11 interceptions this season, tied for the most in the NFL. Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde have been ball-hawking safeties, each with three interceptions this year. Lawrence threw 2+ interceptions in each of his first three games, and while he’s only thrown two interceptions in the four ensuing games, he’s prone to making rookie mistakes. I expect those mistakes to be a very prevalent part of this game as Buffalo’s defense is built to exploit a rookie passer’s worst tendencies.