Buffalo Bills Vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL Player Props & Picks (10/16/22)

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Picks

The game everyone has had circled since last January is finally here, and I can’t wait to watch Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes square off in a potential AFC Championship preview. These teams have put together some incredibly memorable games in recent years, and the player props market in this game is absolutely ripe for value. You can use the Bills vs. Chiefs player prop search tool above to locate the best odds for any player you would like to wager on. Let’s get to work.

Patrick Mahomes Over 23.5 Rushing Yards (-115 BetMGM)

One consistent of the Bills-Chiefs matchups has been Patrick Mahomes running the ball. If you take away the AFC Championship game where he was playing on a hurt foot, Mahomes has averaged 55 rushing yards per game against Buffalo in his career. He’s also gone over this 23.5-yard mark in each of his last three games.

The Chiefs’ reworked offensive line also hasn’t been quite what we expected this year as they rank just 20th in pressure allowed. The Bills have an outstanding pass-rush platoon led by future Hall of Famer Von Miller, and Mahomes will likely be on the move fairly often in this game with that pressure bearing down on him.

Josh Allen Over 46.5 Rushing Yards (-110 BetRivers)

Along with Patrick Mahomes’ rushing yards, I’m also playing Josh Allen’s rushing yards this week. Allen is averaging 45 rushing yards per game this year, just under the listed number here, but there’s more to the story. The Bills save Allen’s legs for their biggest games, as you can see below:

• Allen in eight games vs. playoff teams in 2021: 9.5 carries for 59 yards
• Allen in 11 games vs. non-playoff teams in 2021: 5.7 carries for 38 yards
• Allen vs. the Rams, Dolphins, and Ravens in 2022: 9.7 carries for 58 yards

Allen is also averaging 64.3 rushing yards per game in his four career games against the Chiefs. Over his last ten games, Allen has gone over this prop eight times, and he’s been in the 60s for rushing yardage in several of those. I’d expect a similar result here, and you can use his rushing yardage prop in SGPs with confidence.

Stefon Diggs Over 85.5 Receiving Yards (-110 PointsBet)

Last week, I suggested Davante Adams’ receiving yardage prop in my article for the Raiders-Chiefs game and he soared over. The Chiefs’ secondary has struggled to hold up without Tyrann Mathieu and Charvarius Ward, and they rank just 19th in pass defense DVOA. Rookie seventh-round pick Jaylen Watson has been thrust into a starting role, and that hasn’t gone very well for Kansas City.

The Chiefs have been particularly poor against WR1s – they have the league-worst DVOA against opponents’ top wideout. Top wideouts Mike Williams (8-113-1), Mike Evans (8-103-2), and Adams (3-124-2) have had big games against them recently. Kansas City held Stefon Diggs to just three catches for seven yards in the playoffs last year, but I don’t anticipate that to happen this week.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)

Over the first three weeks of the season, Clyde Edwards-Helaire averaged 38.3 receiving yards per game. Against the Buccaneers, the Chiefs were playing with a multiple-score lead for most of the game, and CEH didn’t hit this receiving line. However, he’s gone over in every other week, and we know the Chiefs will be passing often in neutral and negative game scripts.

The Bills are the top-ranked defense in the NFL at defending the tight end position by DVOA, and they recently held Mark Andrews to just two catches for 15 yards. If Travis Kelce is less of a factor than normal, it would likely mean more targets for CEH. The Chiefs are using multiple running backs, but CEH has still been over 40% of snaps each week and has 4+ targets in three of his last four games.