Get NFL player props and picks for the Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins matchup on (9/25/22)
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Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Player Prop Picks
In a matchup of two undefeated teams, the Buffalo Bills (2-0) travel to South Florida to take on the Miami Dolphins (2-0) on Sep. 25. The Bills have been the most dominant team in the league through two weeks, defeating the defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams and last year’s AFC number one seed Tennessee Titans by a combined score of 72-17. The Dolphins electrified the NFL in week two with a stunning 21-point comeback in the fourth quarter to defeat the Baltimore Ravens on the road. Let’s take a look at some player prop bets I like in this AFC East divisional showdown.
Jaylen Waddle anytime TD (+145 on DraftKings)
Through the first two weeks, it seems like both Waddle and Tyreek Hill will be a good bet for an anytime touchdown just about every week, but Waddle is getting +145 odds this week compared to Hill’s +110. Waddle has been Tagovailoa’s favorite red zone target through the first 18 games of his career, with eight of his nine career touchdowns coming from inside the 10-yard line, including both of his touchdowns last week. Tagovailoa clearly trusts the shifty Waddle to find the right spot and make the tough catches when it gets in close. Expect the Bills to roll coverage to Hill to prevent the big plays, leaving more opportunities for Waddle. With the Bills potentially missing starting defensive backs Dane Jackson and Micah Hyde, who were both hospitalized with neck injuries on Monday night, not to mention all pro cornerback Tre’Davious White, the secondary could be vulnerable. Take the plus odds on Waddle getting into the end zone for the third consecutive game, and if you’re feeling bold, take a flyer on Waddle to catch two touchdowns at +950. On that note…
Stefon Diggs to score two or more TD (+425 on DraftKings)
Diggs has been absolutely unstoppable as MVP favorite Josh Allen’s favorite target through the first two weeks. Coming off a monster 12-catch, 148-yard, 3-TD performance, it’s no surprise that Diggs is at -130 odds for an anytime TD. Those odds aren’t good enough for me to give it any action, but I am interested in the +425 odds for another multi-touchdown game from Diggs. Gabe Davis’ absence was part of the reason for Diggs receiving a whopping 39% target share (15 targets) last week, and Davis remains questionable with an ankle injury. Meanwhile, the Dolphins top cornerback Xavien Howard is questionable with a groin injury. This could be a recipe for another huge day for Diggs in a matchup with the highest over/under on the week 3 slate.
Raheem Mostert over 7.5 receiving yards (-120 on DraftKings)
This one might be boring, but winning bets are never boring. I like the over on receiving yards for two different Dolphins running backs – both Chase Edmonds (19.5 yards at -110) and Mostert. But that’s part of the problem – either one could easily hit, and it’s possible that both could, but less likely, so which one do you pick? Give me the guy that did it most recently with a lower number to hit, and that’s Mostert. Mostert has gone over 7.5 receiving yards in both games this season and has caught all four of his targets for an average of 11 yards per reception. When healthy, Mostert has consistently picked up yards through the air, averaging 10.1 yards per reception and over 10 yards per game in both 2019 and 2020 (24 games). He might only need one catch to hit this over, and with a nearly 50/50 split with Edmonds in both snaps and touches through two games, I like his chances to hit in week 3.