Buffalo Bills Vs. New England Patriots NFL Player Props & Picks (12/1/22)
Buffalo Bills Vs. New England Patriots Player Prop Picks
This week’s entry into the season of Thursday Night Football features two heated AFC East rivals in the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots. This game carries plenty of playoff implications, and players for both teams will be putting their best foot forward in an effort to get the win.
In this article, I’ll cover my favorite player prop values for this upcoming matchup. You can use the Bills vs. Patriots player prop search tool above to compare odds from different sportsbooks. Let’s get to work.
Josh Allen Over 45.5 Rushing Yards (-105 PointsBet)
Josh Allen’s elbow injury is clearly causing him some problems, and it’s showing in his overall passing performance. He hasn’t completed a pass of 40+ yards in his last three games after doing so in five of his first eight games – he’s throwing shorter passes and running more.
Allen’s elbow injury doesn’t seem to have impacted his ability to run the ball as he’s been over 70 rushing yards in three of his last four games. He only hit that number in one of his first seven games this season. Allen is averaging seven rushing attempts per game over the last month.
This matchup sets up very well for Allen as Bill Belichick’s Patriots defense has struggled against mobile quarterbacks. The Patriots have allowed 24.5 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks, the sixth-most in the NFL, and Allen has 60+ rushing yards in each of his last two games against New England.
Isaiah McKenzie Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)
On Thanksgiving, Isaiah McKenzie came through with a massive game with five catches for 96 yards and a touchdown against Detroit. While he obviously won’t have that performance every week, he took advantage of a similar matchup to what he’ll find this week.
The Lions play man coverage at a 44.1% rate, the third-highest in the NFL, and the Patriots are one of the two teams playing man at a higher clip. Miami, who also plays man coverage at a high rate, was torched by McKenzie earlier in the year – he had seven catches for 76 yards and a score against them.
In McKenzie’s eight games not against Miami or Detroit, he’s averaging just 17.9 yards, but I’ll bet on him replicating those performances against another heavy man defense. McKenzie had 11 catches for 125 yards and a score against these Patriots last year.
I’m also putting a half unit on McKenzie to score a touchdown in this game. The best price I found was at FanDuel for +370 odds, but be sure to shop around as anytime touchdown scorer odds can vary significantly across different sportsbooks.
Mac Jones Over 225.5 Passing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
In two regular season games against the Bills last year, Mac Jones had just a total of 164 yards. However, this isn’t close to the same Bills defense. Buffalo has allowed Jared Goff (240), Jacoby Brissett (324), and Kirk Cousins (357) to go over this listed passing yardage prop in recent weeks.
Buffalo’s defensive injuries are reaching a tipping point, particularly in the secondary. Tre’Davious White made his season debut last week, but Dane Jackson has an illness while Micah Hyde and Christian Benford remain on Injured Reserve.
To make matters worse for Buffalo, their pass rush took a huge hit with Von Miller’s injury. Miller leads the team with 45 pressures, and no other player on the team has more than 23. The Patriots’ offensive line is very solid, and Jones should have time in the pocket this week.
Mac Jones seemed to regain his confidence last week in a big way with a 382-yard performance against the Vikings, and he’s hoping to put his early season struggles in the rearview mirror. This game provides a surprising opportunity for him to continue that momentum due to Buffalo’s underperforming defense.
