It tells you a lot about the parity of this NFL season that the Bills were the clear-cut top seed in the AFC just a few weeks ago, and now they’re barely hanging onto a playoff spot. They are in desperate need of a win, as are the Saints, who are reeling after three straight losses. The New Orleans crowd should be fired up for this game, but we’ve seen Josh Allen deliver in these types of difficult atmospheres in the past. You can check out my Thanksgiving betting guide for a complete analysis of this game and a discussion of the best betting angles. In this article, I’ll take a look at my favorite player prop bets. You can use the search tool below to compare odds from different sportsbooks and find the best value for the bet you would like to place.
Buffalo Bills Vs. New Orleans Saints Player Prop Search Tool
Emmanuel Sanders Longest Reception Over 20.5 Yards
It’s been a few weeks since we’ve seen Emmanuel Sanders have the type of significant impact he had earlier in the year, and it’s evident that the Bills’ offense is better when he’s making big plays downfield. Earlier this season, Sanders had a five-week stretch where he had a reception of 21+ yards in every game. The Saints have quietly not had a great pass defense this season, and they’ve allowed an uncharacteristically high 10% explosive play rate, the tenth-highest in the NFL. Marshon Lattimore is a lockdown corner who will mostly cover Stefon Diggs this week, while Sanders faces weaker coverage on the opposite side of the field. I would also target Sanders over 42.5 receiving yards in this game.
Bills vs Saints Thanksgiving Player Props Video
Dawson Knox Anytime TD Scorer
You can get nearly 2-to-1 odds on Dawson Knox to score a touchdown this week, which is an excellent value. Knox scored five touchdowns over four weeks earlier this year, and he hasn’t scored since, but he missed significant time due to a fractured hand. However, he saw two red-zone targets last week, tied with Stefon Diggs for the team lead, and should be able to get back to his typical red-zone role moving forward. If you believe Josh Allen will have a big game this week, which I certainly do, why not bet on one of his favorite red-zone targets to cash a touchdown at 2-to-1 odds?
Trevor Siemian Under 204.5 Passing Yards
Last week, the Saints were missing both of their offensive tackles, Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk, both Pro Bowl players. Alvin Kamara could also not play for the second-straight week, leaving the team without its best offensive weapon. Predictably, those absences hurt Trevor Siemian, the team’s third-string quarterback. Now, he has to face the Bills’ defense that has allowed just 181.8 passing yards per game, the second-fewest in the NFL, potentially without those key pieces. Siemian has surpassed this passing yardage mark in each of his three starts this season, but he hasn’t faced a defense nearly the caliber of Buffalo’s. The Bills will be fired up to get back to being a shutdown defense this week, and it’s hard to imagine Siemian being very successful with all of the injuries around him.
Marquez Callaway Under 37.5 Receiving Yards
You can make the case that any of the Saints’ receivers should go in this category, as I don’t have a ton of confidence in anyone in their passing attack having a good game, but I’m going with Marquez Callaway who hasn’t hit this number in any of his last five games. Callaway is still playing just under 80% of the team’s snaps over the past month or so, but it hasn’t translated to receiving success, as he’s averaging just 30 receiving yards per game over his last four appearances. Whether he’s running against Tre’Davious White, Levi Wallace, Taron Johnson, or any of the other Bills’ secondary players, I have limited confidence in Callaway producing greater numbers than he has lately against one of the best pass defenses in the NFL.