Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets NFL Player Props & Picks (11/6/22)
Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets Player Prop Picks
In an NFC East showdown, the surging Buffalo Bills (6-1) visit the surprisingly relevant New York Jets (5-3) on Sunday, November 6. The over/under on this matchup currently is a modest 45.5 and is moving down after opening at 47. The Bills are heavy favorites at -11.5 which is down from the opening line of -13. This game features two of the better defenses in the league, but can the Jets do enough on offense to keep up with the Bills?
Let’s take a look at the player prop bets I like the most in this Bills vs. Jets matchup.
Zach Wilson under 204.5 passing yards (-115)
This one was a bit of a tough call. Last week against New England, in the first game without Breece Hall, the Jets struggled to establish the running game and Wilson was forced to attempt a season-high 41 passes which led to a career-high 355 passing yards. Game script also contributed to that, as Wilson went 10-for-23 for 203 yards in the second half after the Jets fell behind.
A similar game script could certainly play out against the Bills, whose high-powered offense could develop a lead that forces the Jets to abandon the run, and the pure passing volume that results from that could drive Wilson to the over on his passing yards.
However, the Patriots’ defense is not the Bills’, which ranks 9th in the league against the pass. The Bills have only allowed two quarterbacks so far this season to go over their passing yards prop line, and they have held four quarterbacks under 204 passing yards including Tua Tagovailoa, Lamar Jackson and Aaron Rodgers. There is also a chance their passing defense could receive a boost this week from the return of Tre’Davious White, who was just added to the active roster.
In his one matchup against the Bills last season, Wilson was held to just 87 passing yards. I don’t like his chances to be very successful through the air in this matchup.
Zach Wilson over 0.5 interceptions (-200)
Let’s continue on the Wilson theme here and bet on him throwing an interception in this game. Another consequence of the Jets becoming one-dimensional offensively last week was that Wilson got picked off three times. The Bills have registered at least one interception in six out of seven games this season. We don’t have to look much further than that for a good reason to expect at least one interception from Wilson this week.
Stefon Diggs over 6.5 receptions (+105)
One of the most fun matchups to watch in this game will be Stefon Diggs against Sauce Gardner, who has emerged as one of the top cornerbacks in the league in just his rookie season and is tied for first in the league with 12 passes defensed. However, his impressive start doesn’t deter me from expecting another excellent game from one of the best wide receivers in football.
Diggs has caught at least seven passes in five out of seven games this season and is averaging 7.9 receptions per game, third-most in the league. In two games against the Jets last season, he caught 17 passes on 27 targets. Gardner might be able to limit the big plays by Diggs, and that has me shying away from his yardage total of 78.5 despite his current three-game streak of 100-yard games. But Gardner is not going to completely erase Diggs from the game, so I love taking the plus odds on Diggs catching at least seven passes in this matchup.
