Buffalo Bills vs. Philadelphia Eagles (10/27/2019): NFL Betting Picks, Lines

Last Week: 9-3-1
All-Time Results: 50-43-1, +9.64 Units

Philadelphia Eagles +106 @ Buffalo Bills – .75 Unit

philadelphia eaglesClassic old-school handicap here.  Everybody is selling the Philadelphia Eagles off of a terrible blowout loss on national TV.  When the wreckage clears, however, they are still the Eagles, still a good team.  Philadelphia still has a top 8 QB in Carson Wentz (#3 graded QB, going into Sunday according to PFF), a modern, adaptable coach & talent on both sides of the ball.  The Eagles are also healthier than they’ve been since the beginning of the season, with CB Ronald Darby on his second game back, & LT Jason Peters along with WR Desean Jackson also potentially coming back this week.

Two Reasons to Like a Team After a Blowout Loss

  1. Pricing: Both public & sharp bettors grow weary of backing a team that loses.  Like a hermit crab sheds a shell that’s cracked, it’s natural to move on when hurt.  However, like Warren Buffet buying stocks the way a shrewd smoker grabs a fine cigar off the ground for a final puff, so, too, the Sharp Bettor covets taking the team that’s been tossed aside by the marketplace.
  2. Motivation: Former Eagles DE, Chris Long & The Ringer Podcast Host Ryen Russillo do a segment every week called Best & Worst Plane Rides.  The Eagles were an obvious choice for worst.  With real Super Bowl aspirations, the Eagles now face an uphill climb to make the playoffs or even remain in the playoff conversation.  While this pressure can ultimately tip over and wreck team chemistry – initially I believe it will lead to a more singular team focus & a culture of holding each other accountable.  There is still belief this team can turn the ship around before encountering the iceberg.

Eagles Matchup Advantage

What do the Eagles do poorly?  If you watched Sunday night, you might say – EVERYTHING! – but, again, that’s is the trap of recency bias which picking a team after a blowout loss explicitly exploits.  Taking a season-long look at the Eagles, what do they do especially poorly?

Pass Defense.

If there was one area in which the Bills have been below average, what would it be?

Pass Offense.

The only game the Eagles won easily this year is when they crushed a Jets team that couldn’t throw the ball.  While Josh Allen is not Luke Faulk, he is below average in most passing categories.  Allen is 29th in Total QBR, 26th in Passer Rating, & 23rd in Yards Per Attempt.

Allen is particularly sketchy exploiting defenses deep downfield, where Philadelphia usually suffers.  He ranks 31st in Deep Ball Completion Percentage, 33rd in Competition Percentage from a Clean Pocket & 30th in Adjusted Yard Per Pass.

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Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 @ Buffalo Eagles (+125) – .125 Units
Philadelphia Eagles -4 @ Buffalo Eagles (+170) – .125 Units

philadelphia eaglesThis game is the perfect scenario for the Eagles defensive coaches to reset & flourish.  Think about it: The Eagles can make the argument that they haven’t been close to healthy in the secondary essentially the whole season.  Although Ronald Darby returned last week against the Cowboys, he likely will benefit from a week of practicing with the team to return to game shape.

If the Eagles secondary can smother the Bills passing attack – as many defenses have done this season – they start can mentally tracking their results from this week on & feel good about where they are and where they are going.

On the other side of the ball: The Bills defense has gotten all the love all season & especially since smothering the Patriots in Week 4. But they just gave up 21 points at home to the Miami Dolphins.  Additionally, the best offense they’ve faced outside of the Patriots was either the Jets with Sam Darnold in Week 1 or the Titans with Marcus Mariota in Week 5, both of which are bottom third offenses.  The Bills have not faced a QB with anywhere close to the mobility that Carson Wentz possesses.

The Eagles are 56% ATS (61-48-2 ATS) as an underdog since 2000, including 60.2% (50-33-1) as a road underdog.

While the Bills historically have been great in this role – 54% ATS as a home favorite since 2000 – they have lost 4 of 5 ATS in this spot with Josh Allen as their starting QB.

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Born in Chicago, born for Las Vegas, Mackenzie is a graduate of Yale University with a BA in English & Creative Writting. Mackenzie runs AlternativeStats.blog, which seeks to by-pass the minutiae of commonly cited sports statistics and expose the heart of what drives athletic success. After several successful years investing in Las Vegas real estate, Mackenzie is excited to transition in 2019 into betting on sports full time, as well as documenting his thought process as he further learns the craft.

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