Buffalo Bills vs. Philadelphia Eagles Preview: Prediction, Best Bets, Odds, Depth Charts (11/26/23)
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The Philadelphia Eagles (9-1) play host to the Buffalo Bills (6-5) on Sunday (11/26/23) at 4:25 p.m. EST. The Eagles are the betting favorites at -3 against the spread while the over/under is set at 48.5 points. This article provides Bills vs. Eagles analysis, predictions and betting recommendations and explains why the best bet in this matchup is the Eagles -3.
Buffalo Bills vs. Philadelphia Eagles Prediction & Best Bet
It’s a bit puzzling that the Eagles are only -3 at the time of this writing (or -3.5 at some sportsbooks). They just beat the reigning Super Bowl champs by 4 points on the road, and now they come home to face a Buffalo team that is missing three of its best players on defense and is vastly underperforming so far this season.
The Bills did look much better last week when they walloped the Jets 32-6. But it’s hard to ignore the previous six weeks when they went 2-4 including a loss to the Patriots and a narrow victory over the lowly Giants – two of the worst teams in the league.
The Bills’ defense is struggling without star CB Tre’Davious White, LB Matt Milano and DL DaQuan Jones, who have all been out since Week 5 (White got injured in Week 4, and Milano and Jones in Week 5). From Weeks 5 through 10, their defense was dead last in EPA.
We expect the Eagles’ offense to be able to move the ball consistently, especially through the air, where the Bills were 24th in DVOA, 20th in EPA and 27th in success rate before the Jets game (which unsurprisingly inflated their season-long metrics). The addition of former Eagles CB Rasul Douglas has helped the secondary, but that won’t be enough to slow down an Eagles’ aerial attack that is 9th in DVOA and 6th in EPA.
The Bills also have an explosive offense led by Josh Allen, and they are third in offensive DVOA and EPA. The Eagles have struggled defensively especially against the pass at times this season. But they have stepped up against their toughest competition, holding both the Dolphins and Chiefs scoreless in the second halves of those games. Their secondary is also healthier than it’s been all season and will be starting the same five defensive backs for just the 2nd time all season.
Ultimately we have more confidence in the Eagles to make the big plays when it matters. They may not be dominating teams the way they did last year, but they are consistently finding ways to win and to cover (6-2-2 ATS). And if the Bills fall behind and Josh Allen is forced to play hero ball, that is how he has gotten into trouble committing turnovers (a league-high 15 giveaways including 12 INTs).
We are confident enough in the Eagles covering -3 that we would be interested in teasing that up as high as -5.5 to get some nice odds, but the best and safest play is just to lay the points.
Buffalo Bills vs. Philadelphia Eagles Prediction & Best Bet: Eagles win 27-21 | Best Bet: Eagles -3 (-115)
Buffalo Bills vs. Philadelphia Eagles Betting Odds
The spread in this matchup is sitting right on the key number of 3 at some sportsbooks and is at Eagles -3.5 at other books. Early in the week, public money is coming in strong on the Bills, and if that continues it’s unlikely it will move past -3.5. A move to -2.5 would be significant, but seems unlikely.
The over/under is trending up after opening at 47.5 and is now at 48.5 at most sportsbooks.
The implied outcome of these odds is the Eagles winning 26-23.
Buffalo Bills vs. Philadelphia Eagles Key Injuries
The Eagles are missing TE Dallas Goedert and LB Nakobe Dean, but are otherwise pretty healthy. Reserve S Justin Evans missed the last game and remains questionable this week.
The Bills have several high-level starters on defense on IR right now, and they may be missing a few more as both starting CBs Taron Johnson and Dane Jackson suffered concussions last week and are questionable for this game.
Buffalo Bills vs. Philadelphia Eagles Key Matchups
Check out the key matchups and mismatches for Bills vs. Eagles below.
Stefon Diggs vs. Eagles’ secondary
The fastest way for this game to go sideways for the Eagles is if the Josh Allen-Stefon Diggs connection explodes for a monster game. Diggs is far and away the most dangerous skill player on the Bills. He has led the team in receiving yards by a wide margin in all four seasons with the Bills, and has 405 more yards than their next best pass catcher this season (Gabe Davis).
Of particular concern for the Eagles is Diggs’ heavy usage in the slot. Per PFF, he has lined up in the slot on 37.3% of his snaps and has run the second-most routes from the slot on the Bills (behind TE Dalton Kincaid). The Eagles faced another dominant wide receiver who lined up frequently in the slot, and CeeDee Lamb torched them for 191 yards on 11 catches. They didn’t have Bradley Roby in that game, but it could still be an area for the Bills to exploit the Eagles’ defense.
On the flip side, the Eagles have done a good job neutralizing some elite pass catchers, especially when they were their team’s only real weapon in the passing game. Most notably they held Tyreek Hill (after Jaylen Waddle got hurt in that game) and Travis Kelce to modest games against them.
Whoever gets the better of this matchup will have a massive edge in this game.
Eagles WRs vs. Bills’ banged up secondary
As noted above, the Bills have suffered multiple significant injuries on defense, especially in the secondary. Not only is Tre’Davious White out for the season, but his replacement Dane Jackson suffered a concussion last week, as did their other starting CB Taron Johnson. Former first-round pick Kaiir Elam is also on IR.
Eagles WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith will have huge mismatches against whoever covers them. This becomes especially important in this matchup with star TE Dallas Goedert out with a broken arm. Smith was the main beneficiary of Goedert’s absence last week, leading the team in targets, receptions, and yards. We don’t expect the Bills to be able to take away A.J. Brown the way the Chiefs did with L’Jarius Sneed, so both star pass catchers could be due for a big game.
Buffalo Bills Depth Chart
QB: Josh Allen
RB1: James Cook
RB2: Damien Harris
LWR: Stefon Diggs
RWR: Gabe Davis
SWR: Khalil Shakir
TE1: Dalton Kincaid
Philadelphia Eagles Depth Chart
QB: Jalen Hurts
RB1: D’Andre Swift
RB2: Kenneth Gainwell
LWR: A.J. Brown
RWR: DeVonta Smith
SWR: Olamide Zaccheaus
TE1: Jack Stoll
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