Buffalo Bills vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Player Props (12/12/21)

In arguably the most hyped-up matchup of the week, we’ll get to see Tom Brady’s Buccaneers take on Josh Allen’s Bills. With plenty of offensive talent on both teams, this should be a high-octane, exciting game to watch. In this article, I will dive into some player props and attempt to find the best value on the market. You can use the player prop search tool below to identify the best odds in your particular betting market for the players you want to bet on.

While Fournette has emerged as a consistent fantasy football star and a reliable part of the Tampa offense, this matchup could be a struggle for him as Buffalo ranks sixth in the NFL in run defense DVOA. Fournette has been under this rushing attempts line in eight of his twelve games this season (66%) and four of his last five (80%). Of course, the Bills are pretty stout against the pass too. Still, they’re starting to adjust to life without All-Pro cornerback Tre’Davious White, and the Buccaneers are understandably more comfortable with the ball in Tom Brady’s hands. Fournette will do enough in the receiving game to help him have strong output, but I don’t love this as a high-volume rushing game for him.

Zack Moss Under 20.5 Rushing Yards

The Bills have been trying to establish the run game more in recent weeks, but that’s going to be difficult in this matchup. With Zack Moss, Devin Singletary, and Zack Moss all involved in the offense, it’s been difficult to trust any team’s running backs. Moss has under 20 rushing yards in three of his last five games, and while he did play on 41% of the team’s snaps last week, it’s hard to know what his usage will look like on a week-to-week basis. The Buccaneers have allowed just 84.3 rushing yards per game this season, the second-fewest in the NFL, while they are much more vulnerable against the pass. It would not be the first time we’ve seen the Bills abandon the run, and I’m not projecting a big game for Moss here.

Mike Evans Over 61.5 Receiving Yards

I expected to be writing about the epic matchup between Mike Evans and Tre’Davious White this week. However, White’s torn ACL leaves Buffalo down an All-Pro cornerback without the ability to cover a big-bodied receiver in Evans, who is dominant at the catch point. Evans has surpassed this line in eight of his twelve games this season for a 75% hit rate and averages 66.2 receiving yards per game, so this line is arguably a tad low. Mostly, though, I’m banking on the strong connection between Brady and Evans shining through in this matchup as the Bills struggle without White.

Cole Beasley Under 4.5 Receptions

With Dawson Knox healthy, Gabriel Davis emerging, and Stefon Diggs and Emmanuel Sanders still demanding targets, Cole Beasley has seen a lesser role in the offense in recent weeks. Beasley has had under 4.5 receptions in three of his last four games, a span during which he has averaged just 3.75 targets per game. Beasley has an elite 76.8% catch rate this year, so he’s going to catch most of the targets he gets. However, the Buccaneers’ secondary is getting much healthier, and there are enough mouths to feed in this offense that I have concerns about Beasley’s decreasing involvement.

I've been a huge sports fan for as long as I can remember and I've always loved writing. In 2020, I joined the Lineups team, and I've been producing written and video content on football and basketball ever since. In May 2021, I graduated from the University of Michigan with a degree in sport management. My goal is to tell enthralling stories and provide meaningful insight on the sports I write about while helping you cash some bets along the way.

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