BYU Vs. Kansas: Prediction, Best Bets, Odds (9/23/23) Kansas -9.5

BYU takes on Kansas this week in a Big 12 showdown. In this article, find a preview of the matchup and the odds for the game. Also, find our best bet for the BYU Vs. Kansas game, which is Kansas -9.5.

BYU Vs. Kansas Prediction & Best Bet: Kansas -9.5

BYU earned one of the most notable wins of Week 3, beating Arkansas on the road. It was perhaps the biggest win of head coach Kalani Sitake’s tenure, and it was the seventh in a current seven-game win streak. However, I was left unconvinced.

The Cougars found themselves in a 14-point hole early in the game, and they were outplayed in the game. Arkansas outgained them by 143 yards, had four more first downs, and had seven more minutes of possession. Arkansas shot themselves in the foot repeatedly with 14 penalties for 125 yards. It all resulted in a paltry 4% postgame win expectancy.

BYU was held to a 29% offensive success rate in the game, a putrid number that indicates their 38-point outburst is unsustainable. BYU ranks just 130th in offensive success rate this season, and it’s largely due to a nonexistent run game.

The burden has been put on USC and Pitt transfer quarterback Kedon Slovis, and he struggled last week, completing just 53.8% of his passes for 168 yards. His season-long metrics are inflated by a highlight-filled game against Southern Utah, an FCS team.

Slovis is completely outmatched by Kansas’s Jalon Daniels, who was the All-Big 12 Second Team quarterback last season. Now healthy after missing Week 1, Daniels picked up right where he left off in head coach Lance Leipold’s innovative offense.

Kansas’s defense seems to have taken a significant step forward in Lance Leipold’s third season in charge, and I’m not sure that’s properly accounted for in the market. BYU is due for a letdown after a fortunate win against Arkansas and I fully expect Kansas to outclass them in this game.

BYU Vs. Kansas Prediction & Best Bet: Kansas -9.5

BYU Vs. Kansas Betting Odds

The odds for this game are interesting as the spread has hit -9 or -9.5 on most sportsbooks after opening at -7 earlier in the week. Oddsmakers are expecting this to be a high-scoring game with a total of 55.5 points, but it will be important to monitor the weather as there may be thunderstorms on Saturday in Lawrence, Kansas.

BYU Vs. Kansas Key Matchups

When these two Big 12 teams face off on Saturday, there will be key matchups across the field. Here, I break down two of the biggest that I believe determine the outcome of the game.

Jalon Daniels Vs. BYU Secondary

Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels is outstanding. He finished with 18 passing touchdowns to four interceptions last year, and he added another seven touchdowns on the ground. Daniels has been a perfect fit for Lance Leipold’s offense, and the dual-threat quarterback will create problems for the BYU defense.

I had concerns about a declining BYU defense heading into the year, and they haven’t been tested too much yet. K.J. Jefferson had a quiet game by his standards last week, but the absence of running back Raheim Sanders changed the Arkansas offense. I’m still not sold on a BYU defense that ranked 116th in EPA per play allowed last year.

Daniels already has three receivers with over 150 yards including Lawrence Arnold, who has caught all 14 of his targets for a team-leading 207 yards. Tight end Mason Fairchild has also been a productive receiving threat in this offense. Kansas will challenge BYU’s secondary with receiving threats all over the field.

BYU’s Offensive Line Vs. Kansas’s Pass Rush

The BYU offensive line didn’t hold up last week against Arkansas’ havoc-oriented defense as Kedon Slovis was pressured on a whopping 53.3% of his dropbacks. While things get somewhat easier against Kansas, the Jayhawks appear to have a much better front seven than they did last year.

Kansas ranks 11th in PFF pass rush grades and fifth in defensive havoc this season. Defensive coordinator Brian Borland has done an excellent job of boosting his unit to lighten the load on the team’s prolific offense. Edge Jerome Robinson has led the way with nine pressures and three sacks this season.

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