Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9/12/19): NFL Betting Picks, Lines
Last Week’s Results: 8-4
All Time Results: 8-4, +4.39 Units
Contents
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7.5 (-129) @ Carolina Panthers – .4 Units
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.5 (+280) @ Carolina Panthers – .1 Units
Home teams have dominated Thursday Night Football since its inception in 2006, posting an ATS record of 70-44-1.
The Carolina Panthers, for whatever reason, have not participated in this trend, going 2-4 SU at home on TNF. While that history may speak subtley to the fact that the Panthers do not have a historically strong home field advantage, I like the Buccaneers tonight because I think there is a fundamental mispricing on these teams. I just don’t think the Panthers are that good, and I don’t think the Bucs are that bad.
The Panthers are only a couple of years removed from their dominant 15-1 season that ended with a Super Bowl appearance and a Cam Newton MVP. For much of last season, they appeared to be returning to those heights. But then Cam Newton got a shoulder injury and lost all velocity on his deep passes. He soon had to be shut down for the season, and in his absence Carolina tanked.
The theory for this year is that Newton is recovered and has more weapons than in years past. I was skeptical to start with – and watching these Panthers in Week 1 I am now convinced that Newton and the Panthers are a shell of their former dominant selves.
Many people have made the point that the Panthers met expectations in week 1. After all, they “only” lost to the SB runner-ups by three points. Well, yes & no.
After a Newton interception, the Rams had the ball inside the Carolina 10-yard line with a 10 point lead and less than 5 minutes to go in the game. A few penalties and a missed field goal later, the Panthers reversed the field to score a last minute touchdown to “only” lose by a field goal.
Regardless of the final score, the game was never in doubt in the final 10 minutes. Jared Goff displayed all the rust you would expect from a QB that did not participate in the preseason, and the Rams still had a chance to win by multiple touchdowns.
Despite receiving 1/10th of the criticism, Newton looked just as bad as Jameis Winston in Week 1. If anything, Winston’s struggles were more correctable while Newton’s passing looked to be structurally unsound. For the game, Newton threw only one pass more than 20 yards downfield, sailing the ball on a WR wheel route. Moreover, Newton did not show his normal velocity on his medium throws, and looked to be favoring his recently sprained left foot.
Week 1 represented a continuation of what we saw last year, when Newton battled a shoulder injury. Newton had a passer rating of 30.4 on passes of 20+ yards downfield last year. League average is over 90. Newton is still thought of as a premier QB. We now have more than half a season of data that indicates that – at least for now – Newton is actually significantly below average.
Conversely, everyone is ready to pile dirt on Jameis Winston’s grave after a terrible season opener. But I still think there’s a chance working with HC Bruce Arians can vastly improve his results.
There were a lot of mitigating factors to Winston’s poor play in Week 1. The oppressive heat lead to a sloppy game for both teams and both QBs. One of Winston Pick-6’s was the direct result of RB Peyton Barber running the wrong route. I like for Winston to play better, especially cause few if any still believe in him and now is a make or break moment in his career.
Play well and Winston could earn a multi-year starting QB contract. Play poorly and his days as a starter in this league may be numbered. Winston has lost his last 12 road starts in the NFL. Tonight could be number 13 of that gruesome trend – or the start of a new chapter. A NCAA champion, I like for Winston to recognize the gravity of the moment, work with his coaches, dig in and play better.
For Cam, this is just another game and step in his rehabilitation. I’ll take the hungrier QB and the more under the radar team to get a shocking primetime victory.
More than 75% of the bets have been on the Panthers for tonight’s game, explaining why the line opened up at 5.5 and now hovers around 7. Since 2003, teams receiving 70% or more of bets in September have gone 123-155-4 (44%) ATS.
I think this line move is a classic example of people overreacting to Week 1. The Buccaneers were not as bad as the final score indicated vs. the 49ers. More glaringly, the Panthers weren’t all that close to the Rams despite only losing by 3.
Total Under 49 – .4 Units
Winston was 32nd in QBR in week 1. Newton was 31st. That by itself makes me like the Under. Firstly, these QBs are not playing well. Secondly, the coaches will not want to turn this into a passing game until they can be more sure of their quarterback’s play.
Tampa played excellent defense against the 49ers last week, hidden partially by the 14 points the 49ers defense scored in the second half. Despite the 49ers best efforts, Tampa completely took away the run game, forcing the 49ers into uncomfortable 3rd and long situations.
I see a lot of the same in this game, leading to a lot of Carolina punts. A limited Newton will lead to a predictable and one dimensional offense.
The Panthers did not look comfortable letting Newton hang in the pocket last week. They preferred short routes and Newton had an average drop back time of only 2.2 seconds. The Panthers will try to establish the run. And when they are thwarted, they will not counteract the Bucs aggressive defense by stretching the field. Rather, they will again look to feed Christian McCaffrey as much as possible, having him catch short routes out of the backfield.
On the other side of the ball, I like the Buccaneers to keep Winston out of obvious passing downs. Arians is well aware of Winston’s turnover problems throughout his career. Arians’ reputation requires that he can turn this trend around. If the Buccaneers get a lead in this game, the Bucs will keep the ball on the ground and hope to play positional football to see the game out.
Ronald Jones II to Score a Touchdown +240 – .1 Units
Ronald Jones has established himself as the lead back for the Buccaneers, running 13 times for 78 yards in the season opener. Bruce Arians will want to minimize Winston’s potential for turning it over in the red zone. He will also likely go for it on 4th and goal given Arians aggressive nature and his desire to put pressure on the home favorite.
In 10 career games, Jones only has one rushing touchdown and only 33 rushing attempts. However, he was the #38 pick in the 2018 draft and the Buccaneers have invested too much in him not to give him a fair chance at earning the starting role. 5.8 yards per carry in Week 1 was a great start. Expect more to come from this shifty HB.
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