Carolina Panthers vs. Tennessee Titans (11/03/19): NFL Betting Picks, Lines

Last Week: 4-9
All-Time Results: 54-52-1, +9.43 Units

Tough to Week Handicap

One of those weeks where everybody knows the winner and nobody wants to lay the price.

New England, who sportsbook have as a 4/1 shot to end the season undefeated (realistic models make it closer to 10/1) are laying a reasonable number for the first time all season.  But do I really want to buck Lamar Jackson & John Harbaugh as a home underdog in a primetime game?

Packers heading to LA against the constantly hurt Chargers, where they’ll sick the Smith Brothers off the edge against one of the worst O-Line’s in football. Easy money right? Hm.  I could see that being a field goal game.

Feels like I’m more likely to pick the winner in every game on the card than cash with one of these short favorites without sweating the number through 60 minutes.  Every single game seems like a layup on the Moneyline and tough call on the spread.  This worries me.  How could the Bears beat the Eagles? But can I really lay 5 points with a team with a .500 record? Won’t they be flat playing their first home game after 3 road games against extremely physical opponents?

Doesn’t feel like the Seahawks should be laying almost a touchdown to anybody. But are they really going to fail to cover the spread for the 6th straight time at CenturyLink Field?

Conclusion: everything is priced exactly correctly.  Bookies have athletic endeavor down to a nuclear science & sports gaming is a fools errand. Everybody go home.

Alternative conclusion: Maybe my instincts are right. Is it possible: maybe the favorites come through this week?

Underdogs have covered at a 54.3% rate so far this season – varying from the historical average of 51% going back to 1989. Has the market overcorrected, giving us relatively cheap prices on these favorites?

Look, there are only 20 Weeks of Football and if I wanted safer returns I could always slide into some S&P Futures. Not going to argue myself out of my instincts. Here’s my mad money parley, starting with the oddest spread of the week.

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3-Team Parlay (+261): Carolina Panthers (-208) vs. Tennessee Titans, Green Bay Packers (-177) @ LA Chargers, & New England Patriots -(179) @ Baltimore Ravens – 1 Unit

Panthers: People are discounting the 49ers’ dominance so much that they are drastically altering the power ratings of every team they face – rather than upgrading the 49ers for developing and honing a new version of football (which looks at times a lot like the oldest version of football).  I think the 51-13 drubbing in Santa Clara said a lot more about San Francisco than it did about Carolina.

I still have the Panthers as a slightly above average team that should be favored by 6 over this bad Titans team, ridiculously lucky to escape their last two home games with victories.

Packers: 1.) Aaron Rodgers.

2.) The Chargers are 6-13 ATS at home since moving to LA. I have gone from thinking they have 0 Home Field Advantage to now wondering if it might be a Homefield Disadvantage at this point. Dignity Park will be replete with cosmopolitan Cheese Heads who have moved to Southern California for the weather and will relish the chance to reconnect with the hard-scrabble roots.

Patriots: Going back all the way through his days in Cleveland, Patriots HC Bill Belichick is 69% ATS for his career when facing a starting QB in his second year. That sample now stretches over 60 games after this past week’s depantsing of the Browns, Baker Mayfield.

2nd-year QBs are the sweet spot to fall victim to Belichick’s defensive gameplans. Rookies bring with them some degree of the element of surprise. Veterans have had time to grow accustomed to the league’s tricks and delusions. But 2nd-year QBs are both inexperienced and have enough game tape on them for  Belichick to devise a the perfect game plan of destruction. Belichick is 51-11 SU for his career when facing 2nd year QBs.

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Born in Chicago, born for Las Vegas, Mackenzie is a graduate of Yale University with a BA in English & Creative Writting. Mackenzie runs AlternativeStats.blog, which seeks to by-pass the minutiae of commonly cited sports statistics and expose the heart of what drives athletic success. After several successful years investing in Las Vegas real estate, Mackenzie is excited to transition in 2019 into betting on sports full time, as well as documenting his thought process as he further learns the craft.

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