Charles Schwab Challenge Odds & Golf DFS Picks: 4 Longshots, Including Lucas Glover

By John Haslbauer | May 21, 2025, 10:34am

The PGA Tour makes its last stand in Texas for the 2025 season, heading back to Fort Worth for the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club. Last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge golf DFS column identified Keegan Bradley (T2) as a sleeper contender, so we’ll look to find this year’s version of Bradley in the value range in this article.

This event has been kind to longshots. In fact, five of the last six winners opened beyond 60-1 odds. A simple formula of hot irons and putting has proven repeatable at this venue. That opens the door for a wider list of competitors to contend with. We’ll look to dig for some diamonds in the rough in this article ahead of the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge.

Charles Schwab Challenge Odds

Colonial Country Club: Course Introduction

The longest-running non-major tour event to be held at the same venue, the Colonial Country Club is a familiar and beloved landmark to PGA Tour players. Its appeal was brought up a notch in 2024 after an extensive restoration project led by Gil Hanse. The restoration has successfully brought Colonial CC back to its original intention as a positional golf course that rewards accuracy and penalizes misfires off the tee and on approach.

Known for its firm and fast Bentgrass greens and intermittent gusting Texas winds, Colonial CC has all the elements of a major championship venue, minus the length. That has opened the door for a wider list of contenders over the years, with a common thread of precise ball-striking and proven history on comp courses.

For a deeper dive into the course, read my Charles Schwab Challenge preview. Without any further delay, let’s get to our Charles Schwab Challenge picks, with a focus on longshots and golf DFS sleepers for your fantasy lineups.

Golf DFS Picks: Charles Schwab Challenge

To identify “value” any given week on the PGA Tour, I find it’s best first to understand the consensus key stat profile. Then, take a stance on the elements of the tournament that may go overlooked. At the Charles Schwab Challenge, Recent Form, Course History, and Driving Accuracy are consensus key areas factored into each player’s price.

From a golf DFS picks perspective, I will take a stance primarily on the importance of Comp Course History to differentiate my player pool and find value for this week’s tournament. While Course History is factored into odds this week, a drastic course renovation by Gil Hanse in 2023 has created a brand new look and feel for Colonial CC, which opens up the playing field for players who suit the course but haven’t quite delivered yet historically.

Below, find my favorite value PGA golf DFS picks and longshot bets for the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge. Stats pulled across the last 36 rounds unless otherwise noted.

Related: Scottie Scheffler odds favored to win U.S. Open

Lucas Glover:

A cold putter has continued to send Lucas Glover back to the value range of the odds board recently. However, there’s something about the severely firm and fast Bentgrass greens at Colonial CC that seems to bring out the best in Glover’s flat stick. He’s gained 4+ strokes putting twice over his last three appearances at this event and enters in better (or better yet, “less poor”) putting form than ever before in 2025.

It’s been more of the same consistency with the ball-striking we’ve come to expect from Glover this season, ranking top-10 in Good Drives Gained, Driving Accuracy, and Prox: 100-200. That has translated to success at Colonial over the years, finishing top-12 in two of his last three appearances, including a T8 finish here last season. Nine of the last 10 Charles Schwab Challenge winners had foreshadowed their victory with a top-10 finish in one of their three prior appearances. Glover is one of just six players in the field this week who can continue that trend.

Alex Smalley:

Another player who hung around the PGA Championship leaderboard longer than many would expect, Smalley should carry plenty of momentum with him into Dallas this week. Though still in search of his first PGA Tour win, Smalley has continued to flash his ceiling potential with four top-15 finishes this season. His most recent came two weeks ago in Myrtle Beach, where he finished T5.

Smalley’s best results have come on setups like Myrtle Beach and Colonial CC that are short, wind-exposed, and therefore reward the most skilled ball-strikers who can consistently flight their ball through the wind. His top-10 finishes at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass and The Stadium Course earlier this season further demonstrate his knack for positional courses. Ranking No. 12 in my model overall, Smalley is one of my favorite fantasy plays to target this week.

Ryo Hisatsune:

A surprise contender throughout much of the PGA Championship last week, Hisatsune’s T37 finish does not tell the full story due to an untidy Sunday finish. The 22-year-old has wasted no time acclimating to life on the PGA Tour, earning full status in 2024 through the new DP World Tour pipeline. Hisatsune was a winner at Le Golf National in 2023, a comparable course to Colonial CC, where accuracy is rewarded.

Hisatsune is a bit of a specialist. He overcomes his lack of driving distance by leaning on his Driving Accuracy, mid-iron play, and spike putting to score on positional venues. He has five top-20 finishes over his last 11 starts, each coming on courses like Colonial CC that cannot be overpowered by sheer distance alone. He ranks No. 11 in my model this week and will be a leverage play for me in fantasy formats.

Sami Valimaki:

It’s been an up-and-down 2025 season for the young Swede, but the high-end upside he’s shown in both SG: Approach and SG: Putting makes him an appealing consideration whenever we head to a course like Colonial CC that accentuates the importance of both. Valimaki ranks No. 6 overall in my model, a credit to his top-10 ranks in the key categories of Recent Form (SG: TOT L36), SG: APP, SG: P, and Bogety Avoidance.

Texas golf is not for everyone, as it requires the ability to hit flighted shots in the face of intermittent winds. The European has had no issues there, placing 4th, T12, and T39 in his first three starts in Texas this season. One of my favorite value plays this week, Valimaki is a viable option in fantasy formats, and is a player I will be circling on my placement betting card this week.

Shop the best odds at sports betting sites for PGA Tour sleepers and more highly-touted players before betting, including for top 10, top 20, etc. Best of luck if you choose to bet on these golf DFS picks!

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