Charles Schwab Challenge Odds & Betting Preview: Early Picks, Including Michael Kim

The PGA Tour heads to Colonial Country Club with the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge. Compare Charles Schwab Challenge odds at the best sports betting sites to increase your potential PGA Tour golf betting payouts. Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth, Daniel Berger, Hideki Matsuyama, and Tommy Fleetwood project as the top favorites for this upcoming tournament.

In one of the most competitive stretches of the PGA Tour schedule, the stars continue to shine in the Lone Star State. We head to Fort Worth for the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge at the new and improved Colonial Country Club. Let’s take a look at this weekend’s Charles Schwab Challenge odds.

We’ve grown accustomed to seeing Colonial CC on the schedule, as it’s the longest-running host course on Tour. While it’s gone through a myriad of different sponsors, 2025 marks the 79th installment of this event, dating to 1946. Notably, it served as host for golf’s return from its COVID hiatus in June 2020. It attracted an unusually strong field and saw uncharacteristic course conditions crop up.

Colonial CC is a quintessential positional course that historically mitigates distance advantage and has produced a diverse cast of winners. Emiliano Grillo, Sam Burns, and Jason Kokrak’s driver-heavy approach in their recent victories exposed Colonial as no longer the positional test it was originally intended to be. A significant course renovation in 2023 will make for a refreshed Charles Schwab Challenge in 2025.

The players who catch the hottest irons and putters are the ones who historically prevail at this event. There’s an added premium on mid-irons and accuracy off the tee in order to work the ball around this golf course and create the best angles to attack pins and generate scoring opportunities. We’ll run through the key facts and info about Colonial CC ahead of betting on Charles Schwab Challenge odds.

Charles Schwab Challenge: Betting Odds

The Field At A Glance

The Charles Schwab Challenge is a 133-player invitational, maintaining the standard “top-65 and ties” cut rules. For DFS purposes, that means we can expect a higher 6/6 percentage this week.

A storied event that lacks the “Signature” status bump on this season’s schedule, the Charles Schwab Challenge attracted a decent field despite following the PGA Championship.

After winning a third major, Texas native Scottie Scheffler headlines the field this week and will have the home crowd on his side all week. Scheffler loves playing in Texas, as demonstrated by his dominant victory at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch. Despite it being a “hangover” week following the PGA Championship, Scheffler will be an intimidating presence.

In addition to Scheffler, seven OWGR top-25 players will tee it up in Dallas this week. Hideki Matsuyama, Maverick McNealy, Tommy Fleetwood, Robert MacIntyre, Brian Harman, and Daniel Berger round out the list of headliners.

Davis Riley returns to defend his title, out-dueling Scottie Scheffler in the most out-of-nowhere performance of the 2024 season. Emiliano Grillo, Daniel Berger, Justin Rose, Kevin Kisner, Jordan Spieth, Chris Kirk, Adam Scott, and Zach Johnson also return to the field as past champs.

• Related: Bet on Scottie Scheffler Odds to win U.S. Open?

Introduction To Colonial CC

Immediately following the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge, Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner embarked on an extensive renovation project to restore Colonial Country Club to its roots. The goal was to return the course to when it hosted the 1941 U.S. Open. In doing so, Hans and Wagner developed a more sustainable agronomy to withstand the harsh climate changes throughout the year. That renovation project is complete, with a fresh and modernized Colonial Country Club ready to take the stage.

The entire course was ripped up to route new irrigation systems throughout the property. The course was then re-sodded using the same Bentgrass base. The layout of the course was largely unchanged. With the exception of holes No. 13 and No. 18, brand new greens were constructed. The new routing at Colonial also features a new barranca and rivetted bunkers — two classic staples of Hanse’s design philosophy.

Overall, the primary goal of the renovation was to introduce a more modern and sustainable irrigation system. While extensive work has been done on the course, its playability did not change drastically in 2024, when a similar archetype of player rose to the top of the leaderboard, as usual at Colonial CC.

How It Breaks Down

Colonial CC is a classical, tree-lined, and positional golf course with a rich history. As a par-70 and just over 7,200 yards, it’s stood the test of time and challenged the field year after year. It keeps scores in check and has led to many dramatic finishes.

Precision off the tee, accuracy on approach, and putting pedigree are the consistent key characteristics we’ve seen from winners like Jason Kokrak, Daniel Berger, and others.

Only twice have winning scores been pushed beyond -15 since 2011. With the area receiving less rain than in recent years, I would expect a winning score of around -12 to -13. The DFW Metroplex may have the most dense population of golf obsessives in the United States. So, the Charles Schwab Challenge has always welcomed electric atmospheres. Local Texans take great pride in competing each year. The event should have the full attention of players like Scheffler and Spieth despite the turnaround from a major.

Course History & Comps

Course History has proven predictive at Colonial CC. Of the last nine Charles Schwab Challenge winners, six posted a T10 or better finish within three years prior. Rose is the only player within the past decade who won in his debut appearance. The list of players with a T10 finish over the last three years at this event includes: Scottie Scheffler, Michael Kim, Jordan Spieth, Harry Hall,  Pierceson Coody, Mark Hubbard, Adam Schenk, Emiliano Grillo, Davis Riley, and David Lipsky.

Looking at recent course history, seven players posted multiple T15 finishes within the last five years: Scheffler, Spieth, Grillo, Riley, JT Poston, Lucas Glover, and Gary Woodland.

Six players avoided missing the cut over each of the last five years (min. three appearances): Glover, Hubbard, Daniel Berger, Lee Hodges, Aaron Rai, and David Lipsky. 

The top 10 players in terms of overall course history at Colonial CC are: Jordan Spieth, Scottie Scheffler, Davis Riley, Harris English, Brian Harman, Matt Kuchar, Webb Simpson, Mac Meissner, Emiliano Grillo, and Christiaan Bezuidenhout. 

Bet On Jordan Spieth?

One could argue Spieth’s history and consistency at the Charles Schwab is the most dominant of any currently active PGA player on a given course. He amassed 79 strokes gained on the field over 38 career rounds – an average of 2.2 SG per round. For context, Finau ranks No. 2 in total strokes gained at Colonial CC, with 43 total strokes over 32 rounds. He is the only player in this field to have gained even half as many strokes at this event as Spieth over the same span.

It’s a home game for Spieth in his native DFW. He’ll stay in his childhood home for the week and put on a show in front of local friends, family, and fans. He’s looked solid – albeit not necessarily to his standards – this 2025 season, and we should expect him to be a factor in this week’s tournament in his return to Fort Worth.

In 11 career appearances since 2013, Spieth has one victory, three runner-ups, and nine total finishes inside the top 14. Prior to a missed cut in 2023, while battling a wrist injury, his worst outing came in 2018 when he finished T32 while still gaining over seven strokes from tee to green. Given his strong course history, it’ll be interesting to monitor where Spieth’s Charles Schwab Challenge odds open this week.

Course Comps

Colonial CC slots in well with some of the other shorter, positional, wind-exposed courses we see on the yearly TOUR schedule. A similar formula of driving accuracy, approach precision, and strong putting continues to be the script to find success here. I lean towards Sedgefield CC as the top overall comp course. Kevin Kisner and Sergio Garcia have won both events within the last 10 years.

Over recent years, we’ve seen players like Reed, Snedeker, Poston, Na, Simpson, Spieth, and Scott post T5 finishes in both events. Both par-70s emphasize the key characteristics of driving accuracy, approach, and long-term putting.

In addition to Sedgefield, I also like Memorial Park for a comp as another challenging, wind-exposed Texas course, which featured a recent Kokrak win and strong performances from Finau.

TPC River Highlands, Harbour Town, Pebble Beach GL, Innisbrook Resort, and Waialae CC have also shared similar overlapping leaderboards, emphasizing positional play and strong iron play from inside 200 yards.

Lastly, the Philadelphia Cricket Club is a great recent example of a classical course that has undergone a recent restoration. It features the same Bentgrass greens and similar course yardage as a par-70.

Combine performance across this list, and the top 10 players in Comp Course History are Scottie Scheffler, Tommy Fleetwood, Mac Meissner, Tom Kim, Keith Mitchell, Ryo Hisatsune, Tom Hoge, Bud Cauley, Eric Cole, and Jacob Bridgeman.

Key Stats To Consider

• SG: APP / GIRs Gained
• Par 4: 350-450
• Prox: 125-200
• Good Drives Gained / Driving Accuracy
• SG: Putting (L36, Bent)
• Doubles Avoided
• Course & Comp Course History

We’ve seen a sticky formula of repeated success on courses that remove distance advantage and instead reward control both off the tee and on approach. When we also consider that scoring will remain in check – likely no further beyond a -15 winner – we have less randomness to account for.

As with most 7,200-yard courses, irons will likely decide things. The top 10 in terms of SG: APP entering this week are Henrik Norlander, Scottie Scheffler, Sami Valimaki, Kevin Yu, Bud Cauley, Daniel Berger, Tommy Fleetwood, Brian Campbell, JJ Spaun, and Joel Dahmen.

Precision off the tee remains of vital importance this week. The heavily treelined setup will block out approach shots for any significant misses. Since the rough is not incredibly penal, the Good Drives Gained stat has been a bit more predictive of success at Colonial CC than pure accuracy. There is more of an advantage to hitting drives to the correct side of the hole than simply finding the fairway.

The top 10 in terms of Good Drives Gained are: Aaron Rai, Takumi Kanaya, Lucas Glover, Joel Dahmen, Zac Blair, Ben Kohles, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Zach Johnson, Daniel Berger, and Lanto Griffin.

A combination of Good Drives Gained, SG: APP, Prox: 100-200, and weighted SG: P (Bent and Total) looks like the simplest approach to narrowing down a player pool this week. Ten players rate out above average in each of those categories: Aaron Rai, Brian Harman, Lanto Griffin, Victor Perez, JJ Spaun, Henrik Norlander, Andrew Putnam, Tom Kim, Davis Thompson, and Gary Woodland.

Approach From Shorter Range

Unique to Colonial CC, 82% of approach shots will come from inside 200 yards, so it’s a great week to hone in on players who thrive with their wedges and mid-irons. The top 10 players in terms of SG: APP with Prox 200+ removed are: Henrik Norlander, Scottie Scheffler, Sami Valimaki, Kevin Yu, Bud Cauley, JJ Spaun, Joel Dahmen, Joseph Bramlett, Doug Ghim, and Tom Hoge.

Betting Correlation

Looking at the correlation charts this week, it’s notable to see the precipitous drop in the importance of Par-5 Scoring at Colonial CC compared to the PGA Tour average. That makes sense on this par 70, which features one par 5 reachable in two for the full field and a second par 5 not reachable in two for anyone.

We also see a notable drop in the importance of SG: OTT and P4: 450-500. Emiliano Grillo, Jason Kokrak, and Sam Burns have excelled in both areas in their wins each of the last three years. Over the history of this event, however, the shorter hitters have found the most success, capitalizing on their driving accuracy and short to mid-irons.

Par 4: 350-400 and Par 4: 400-450 represent the biggest climbers in terms of importance at Colonial CC. Considering half the holes this week will fall within these two ranges, this is a bit of an unusual set-up for a PGA TOUR course.

Just nine players in the field rank above average in each of the above 10 key stat categories: Scottie Scheffler, Bud Cauley, Joseph Bramlett, Si Woo Kim, Andrew Putnam, Eric Cole, Davis Thompson, Brian Harman, and Michael Kim.

Player Spotlight: Michael Kim

Michael Kim took the world by storm in the first few months of the 2025 PGA TOUR season before crashing back to reality. This week, a return to a familiar venue in Colonial Country Club may be the jolt he needs to pick up his second career PGA TOUR victory.

A Houston resident, Kim has played well at Colonial over the years, picking up a career-best T6 finish at this event in 2023. That is significant, as nine of the last 10 winners had posted a top-10 finish at the Charles Schwab Challenge within three years of picking up their wins. This week, Kim is one of just 10 players who check that box. Even Davis Riley, whose 2024 victory seemed to come from nowhere, fit this trend, and beyond the usual suspects of Scheffler and Spieth, Kim looks poised as the next best threat to pay it off.

While Kim has cooled off since his start to the season, which included five consecutive top-15 finishes between the WM Phoenix Open and Arnold Palmer Invitational, his tee-to-green form remains just as sharp. He ranks top-20 in SG: T2G, SG: ARG, Prox: 100-200, and Bogey Avoidance, good for No. 25 overall in my model.

With the trends, course history, course fit, and recent form on his side, Michael Kim will be a feature on my betting card when odds release on Monday. It’s only a matter of whether that bet is placed in the “Without Scheffler” market or not.

Charles Schwab Challenge Odds: DFS Player Pool

With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool. Naturally, I’m looking their way in the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge odds as well. I’ve broken the list down by projected pricing/odds tier for DraftKings Sportsbook.

Tier 1

• Scottie Scheffler
• Hideki Matsuyama
• Tommy Fleetwood

Tier 2

• Si Woo Kim
• Daniel Berger
• Davis Thompson
• Andrew Novak

Tier 3

• Maverick McNealy
• Aaron Rai
• Bud Cauley
• Brian Harman
• Michael Kim
• JJ Spaun

Tier 4

• Henrik Norlander
• Davis Riley
• Tom Hoge
• Joel Dahmen

Tier 5

• Andrew Putnam
• Joseph Bramlett

Charles Schwab Model Results & Breakdown

In my model, I’m emphasizing SG: APP first and foremost, followed by a more balanced mix of SG: T2G (Recent Form), P4: 350-450, Comp Course History, Good Drives Gained, Prox: 100-200, SG: P (TOT + Bent) and Doubles Avoided.

Scottie Scheffler is in the field this week, so naturally, it is he who claims the No. 1 spot in my model. Unfortunately for the other mortals teeing it up in this golf tournament, a prime and fully healthy Scheffler seems to be 100% back, as he has looked dominant in his last two starts at the CJ Cup, the Byron Nelson, and the PGA Championship. With the home crowd on his side in Dallas, it’s hard to envision him not being in the mix come Sunday afternoon.

After Scheffler, my model’s top 10 is rounded out by Daniel Berger, Tommy Fleetwood, Bud Cauley, Si Woo Kim, Sam Valimaki, Brian Harman, Rico Hoey, Aaron Rai, and Mackenzie Hughes. 

When the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge odds open Monday, I’ll look to Tommy Fleetwood, Daniel Berger, Michael Kim, and Aaron Rai to start my card, depending on where the odds ultimately open.

Check back in later this week for more updates. Best of luck navigating the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge odds!

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