Charles Schwab Challenge Odds, Picks, Predictions: Best Bets, Including Tommy Fleetwood

By John Haslbauer | May 21, 2025, 2:36pm

A week after a tough grind at Quail Hollow, the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial CC is sure to open up to more contenders. Scottie Scheffler, Tommy Fleetwood, and Jordan Spieth headlined the field for Charles Schwab Challenge odds across the best sports betting sites. This course offers a sterner test of all-around golf with the help of Gil Hanse’s ambitious 2023 restoration project.

Despite the new look, the restoration was successful in returning Colonial CC to its original intention as a positional golf course that rewards control and accuracy. No longer susceptible to the bomb-and-gouge approach, reliable fairway finders who excel on approach from inside 200 yards should separate themselves this week.

Let’s go through my final betting card. Click any Charles Schwab Challenge odds below to place a bet. For a full breakdown of the tournament and course, visit my Charles Schwab Challenge preview.

Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Odds

Find the best Charles Schwab Challenge odds across sportsbooks in your state. Navigate to my longshots post for more golf DFS picks and considerations.

How I Built My Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Card

For the first time ever, I am constructing an outright card entirely in the “Without Scottie Scheffler” market. As the sizable favorite, Scheffler checks every single box you can think of at Colonial. He is chasing his third consecutive win on the PGA Tour, and is hungry to pick up his elusive first win at Colonial CC in a homecoming event for the local Texan. Like most other courses, Colonial suits Scheffler’s game perfectly.

Related: Scottie Scheffler odds favored to win U.S. Open

So, rather than take the week off or insure all of my outrights with an each-way bet, I’ve found when comparing odds across the market that the premium on odds in the “Without Scheffler” market is not that steep. This also opens up the possibilities for some players who are good enough to win here but may get inside their own heads when trying to win a tournament rather than playing for second place.

From a unit allocation standpoint, it’s back to business as usual for my weekly stake at the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge.

Charles Schwab Challenge Best Bets: Outrights Without Scheffler (3.7 Units)

Daniel Berger

My Bet: +2000

Best Available Odds (Without Scheffler): +1800

I’m drawn to Daniel Berger for all the same reasons I love Tommy Fleetwood this week, so it’s hardly a surprise to see the, priced at the same odds. Berger ranks No. 2 overall in my model this week, so overall, I’ve hedged my bets on the top-2 contenders against Scheffler in my eyes this week.

Berger is a former champion at the Charles Schwab Challenge back in 2020, and has a game perfectly suited for Texas golf, given his ability to control the ball off the tee and hit flighted approaches to combat gusting winds. A win in 2025 feels inevitable at some point for Berger, as he’s now finished top-30 in each of his last 10 starts.

Tommy Fleetwood

My Bet: +2000

Best Available Odds (Without Scheffler): +2000

The last time Tommy Fleetwood was closest to winning a golf tournament came at the 2024 Olympics, when he was ultimately chased down by Scottie Scheffler and settled for a Silver Medal. Since then, Fleetwood has remained one of the most consistent golfers in the world, sustaining a made-cut streak of 20 consecutive events and picking up 18 top-25 finishes over that stretch.

Fleetwood is the ideal archetype of a player to score at Colonial CC, ranking No. 3 in my model. He should be able to leverage his consistent ball-striking to generate scoring opportunities this week.

Michael Kim

My Bet: +4000

Best Available Odds (Without Scheffler): +4500

My featured spotlight player of the week at the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge, Michael Kim, seems to suit all of the trends about this tournament. Nine of the last 10 winners of this event had posted a top-10 in one of their three most recent prior trips to Colonial, and Kim is one of just six players to satisfy that trend in this week’s field (a T6 finisher here in 2023).

Kim flashed his potential earlier this season with a stretch of five consecutive top-15 finishes, and he seems to have rediscovered the tee-to-green form that led to that hot start to the year. Kim ranks top-20 in SG: TOT, SG: T2G, SG: ARG, Bogey Avoidance, and Prox: 100-200 leading into this week.

Lucas Glover

My Bet: +5000

Best Available Odds (Without Scheffler): +5000

Course history has always been important at Colonial CC, and Glover’s is amongst the best in this field with two top-12 finishes over his last three appearances. This course should cater perfectly to Glover’s strengths, as he ranks top-10 in Driving Accuracy, Good Drives Gained, and Prox 100-200.

As usual, the putter has held Glover back this season. However, the upside remains, as 2025 marks his best statistical putting season thus far since 2019. With three top-10 finishes already this year, this week sets up well for Glover to contend again.

Charles Schwab Challenge Bets: First-Round Leader (0.60 Units)

Aaron Rai

My Bet: +4500

Best Available Odds:

It’s never really a decision whether or not to bet Aaron Rai FRL at this point, but it does feel comforting to know he’s returning to a course that deprioritizes distance in favor of accuracy. Rai competed here in 2023 and posted a T12 finish.

Bud Cauley

My Bet: +7000

Best Available Odds:

One of the last men off my outright card, it’s difficult to say which version of Bud Cauley we should expect to see this week. If his form returns to the level that produced three consecutive top-6 finishes at THE PLAYERS, Valspar Championship, and Valero Texas Open, this course should suit him well.

Alex Smalley

My Bet: +7000

Best Available Odds:

One of the premier ball-strikers in this field at the moment, Smalley continues to come out hot and leak oil as he gets to the weekend. That’s what draws me to him in the FRL market, as on paper, he has all the game to go low at Colonial CC.

Nico Echavarria

My Bet: +9000

Best Available Odds:

A value bet for me on an underrated player in this field, Echavarria has flashed his spike upside this season with a win and three top-6 finishes over his last 16 starts. He continues to trend with his ball-striking and is one of the top putters on TOUR statistically this season.

Rico Hoey

My Bet: +10000

Best Available Odds:

It’s always a good idea to target the best approach players in the FRL market, and that’s especially true at Colonial CC, which puts an even heavier weight on precision. Hoey ranks No. 2 in the field in SG: Ball Striking, and top-5 in SG: Approach on difficult scoring venues.

Charles Schwab Challenge Bets: Props (2 Units)

Full Tournament Matchup: Tommy Fleetwood Over Jordan Spieth

My Bet: -110

I understand the Spieth hype at Colonial CC completely. In years past, I have even felt compelled to bet him as a single bullet at this event. But this is not the same Jordan Spieth or Colonial CC, so I’m selling high on the course history premium.

Fleetwood has been objectively better than Spieth across all categories for the better part of two years now, and it remains to be seen if Spieth’s magic at Colonial CC can withstand all the changes it has seen over the last year.

Top-20 Finish: J.T. Poston

My Bet: +180

Best Available Odds:

The lack of proven stars in this field, combined with Poston’s sustained ball-striking form over recent months, draws me straight to him in the placement market. He’s been known to sustain streaky form, so he’s a prime target for me to build momentum off of his T2 finish at the PGA Championship last week.

Top-20 Finish: Sami Valimaki

My Bet: +500

Best Available Odds:

Looking further down the board, I love the upside Valimaki brings this week, as one of the few players to rank top-15 in terms of both SG: APP and SG: P. That formula can work well on a target golf course like Colonial CC, as he looks for his fifth top-20 finish in eight starts.

One & Done (OAD)

My Pick: J.T. Poston

In some ways, this is a punt play for me in One And Done. I do still have Scottie Scheffler available to use, however, the purse at this event pales in comparison to that of a Signature Event or Major Championship. Scheffler won each of the remaining Signature Events (the Memorial, The Travelers) last season, so as much as a win in this week’s homecoming may feel like a foregone conclusion, Scottie is going to contend in plenty more events as the season goes on.

With Poston, we have a player who is trending now (four consecutive top-25s), has good course history (T12 in his last trip to Colonial CC), and does not need to be saved for later events this season. If everyone truly is playing for second place this week, then Poston slots in nicely as an under-the-radar OAD play.

If not Poston, I would also consider playing Scottie Scheffler, Tommy Fleetwood, or Jordan Spieth in OAD.

Charles Schwab Challenge Odds: Full Betting Card

That’ll do it for this week’s PGA Tour golf bets. Best of luck this week with your bets on the odds for the Charles Schwab Challenge, and see you on Sunday for the Memorial Tournament preview.

Charles Schwab Challenge Odds

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