Chase Burns MLB Props, Betting Odds, Predictions: Reds-Yankees Best Bets & Picks
A little over a year ago, right-hander Chase Burns wrapped up his college baseball tenure at Wake Forest. On July 14, the Cincinnati Reds selected Burns with the second overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft. Fast forward to Tuesday, and the 22-year-old’s meteoric rise through the minors has culminated in his big-league debut against Aaron Judge and the New York Yankees. Let’s break down the best Chase Burns prop bets for Reds-Yankees betting odds at BetMGM Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Yankees At Reds Betting Odds: Moneyline, Spread, Total
Chase Burns Prop Bets For MLB Debut (Tuesday, June 24)
Outs Recorded
| Pitcher Outs | BetMGM Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 15.5 | +125 |
| Under 15.5 | -175 |
Strikeouts Recorded
| Pitcher Strikeouts | BetMGM Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 5.5 | +125 |
| Under 5.5 | -160 |
Alternate Strikeouts
| Alt. Pitcher Strikeouts | DraftKings Odds |
|---|---|
| 3+ | -1100 |
| 4+ | -380 |
| 5+ | -150 |
| 6+ | +135 |
| 7+ | +285 |
| 8+ | +600 |
| 9+ | +1300 |
Chase Burns Prop Bets & Potential Betting Picks
Led by Aaron Judge, the odds-on favorite to win the American League MVP, the Yankees have a bevy of bats to make Burns uncomfortable in his MLB debut. Additionally, Great American Ball Park is tied for the third-highest rating in Statcast’s park factor, which illustrates the impact of ballparks on home run-type distances. If Burns’ fastball is flat, Judge and Co. have the power to limit Burns to a short outing.
Per the table above, MLB’s 11th-ranked prospect is favored to go five innings or fewer. By converting these -175 odds to implied probability, he has a 63.4% chance of failing to exceed this threshold.
After winning the series opener, the betting market is also pricing the Reds as hefty underdogs against southpaw Carlos Rodon.
However, Burns has the arm talent to miss bats. His fastball touches triple digits and is accompanied by two MLB-level breaking pitches. With a changeup to keep hitters on their toes, his pitch sequencing is similar to prime Justin Verlander.
In the last week, New York has accrued the third-highest strikeout rate in MLB, ranking ahead of only the White Sox and Rockies. Conversely, Burns delivered a 36.4% strikeout rate and 17.1% swinging strike rate (SwStr%) in 42 innings at Double-A Chattanooga. His competition wasn’t comparable to what he’ll face in the majors, but he didn’t miss a beat in Triple-A Louisville, notching a 2.19 ERA and 3.05 xFIP in 12.1 IP.
Over at DraftKings Sportsbook, Burns is priced at plus-money to finish with six or more punch-outs.
Best Odds & Bets For Reds’ Chase Burns vs. Yankees
Rather than toying with strikeout prop bets for Burns, I’d rather place a small bet on Cincinnati’s moneyline odds. Although the Reds rank 24th in wRC+ against lefties, I believe the market is overvaluing Rodon, who has surrendered five home runs over his last three starts.
If you’d rather invest in Burns over the long term, he’s to win the 2025 National League Rookie of the Year. Good luck with your bets for Burns’ MLB debut!
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NL Rookie Of The Year Odds
