Chicago Bears Vs. Detroit Lions Player Props (11/25/21)

The Chicago Bears travel to Detroit in week 12 to face the Lions on Thanksgiving.  This will be the third Thanksgiving matchup between the teams in the last four seasons.  The Bears are coming off a heartbreaking 16-13 loss to the Ravens.  Chicago is now 3-7, losing their last five games in a row.  In week 11 Detroit lost on the road to Cleveland 13-10, to push their record to 0-9-1.  Dan Campbell continues to search for his first victory as the Lions head coach.  The Bears are a 3.5-point road favorite.  The Lions are 6-4 against the spread; 0-4 at home this season.  Detroit is on a four-game losing streak on Thanksgiving after winning four in a row from 2013-16.  

David Montgomery Under 76.5 Rushing Yards

Chicago’s ground attack is averaging 132.1 yards per game.  After being out for four games, David Montgomery came back in week 10 against the Steelers, in his second game back he rushed for 58 yards on 14 carries against the Baltimore Ravens.  

Montgomery leads the Bears in rushing with 430 yards on 96 carries and has scored three touchdowns: averaging 4.5 rushing yards per attempt.  This season he’s averaging 71.7 rushing yards per game. 

In his third season, he’s rushed for 2,389 yards on 585 carries: averaging 64.6 yards rushing per game in his career.

With Andy Dalton under center now due to Justin Fields injury, I would expect Montgomery to get between 15-20 carries in the game against the Lions; he’s averaging 16 carries per game this season.  Playing indoors on Thanksgiving, I would expect Montgomery to get the bulk of the carries for the Bears and rush for

TJ Hockenson Over 4.5 Receptions

Tight End T.J. Hockenson is one of the best young tight ends in football.  The top three tight ends in the league are Travis Kelce, Darren Waller and George Kittle, but I would rate Hockenson just below those players. 

Without a go-to wide receiver, the former Iowa Hawkeye is one of the most important pieces to the Lions offense, consistently making clutch catches.  In the loss to Cleveland, he had six receptions for 51 yards.  

On the season, the first-round pick in 2019 leads the team in receiving with 54 receptions for 499 yards and four touchdowns: averaging 5.4 receptions per game in 2021.   

Per PFF, Hockenson’s 54 catches are the most by any player in the league without a drop.  In his career has 153 catches in 38 games: averaging four receptions per game.  

Having caught at least five passes in six games this season, I’d expect Hockenson to have at least six catches on Thursday thus going over 4.5 catches.  Whether it is Jared Goff, Tim Boyle or David Blough triggering the offense they’ll be looking for their reliable tight end.  

D’Andre Swift Over 59.5 Rushing Yards

The Detroit running attack is averaging 114.2 yards per game.  

D’Andre Swift rushed for 136 yards and a touchdown in the loss to the Browns in week 11.  He is one of two Detroit players with at least 100 rushing yards in a game since 2014.

The former Georgia Bulldog is the Lions leading rusher this season with 555 yards on 137 carries and four scores: averaging 55.5 rushing yards per game.  He’s rushed for 1,036 yards in 23 games in his NFL career.  

Swift has rushed for 266 yards in his last two games, averaging 5.7 yards a carry. 

With Detroit’s quarterback situation in flux due to injury, I expect Swift will carry the ball at least 20 times and rush for over 75 yards going over 59.5 yards.