Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers NFL Player Props & Picks (9/18/22)
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Get NFL player prop odds & picks for the Sunday Night Football game between the Bears & Packers.
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers Player Prop Search Tool
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Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers Player Prop Picks
The Bears and Packers face off this week in one of the most storied NFL rivalries, and Chicago will be looking to build on the scare they put in Green Bay when they led 24-21 at halftime last December before falling apart in the second half. I wouldn’t have guessed the Bears would have a better record than the Packers in this matchup, and both teams should be fired up for this game. The player prop market provides plenty of value, and this article will focus on the best options. You can use the player prop search tool below to find the best values in your market.
Cole Kmet Over 27.5 Receiving Yards
Last week was disappointing for Cole Kmet, but as I mentioned in the intro, I’m almost willing to throw out everything that happened in that game due to the absurd weather conditions in Chicago. Kmet still played on 83% of snaps, but Justin Fields only completed eight passes as it was difficult to get the passing game going in those conditions.
This week, the weather looks to be far more manageable in Green Bay. Justin Fields averaged 17 completions in his two games against the Packers last year, and that was in the Matt Nagy offense which has been well-documented to have not supported his play tendencies and biggest strengths.
Kmet averaged 45 receiving yards per game over his final seven games of the 2021 season, and he averaged 3.1 catches for 32 yards in the games he played with Justin Fields as his quarterback. Kmet should be the number two pass-catcher behind Darnell Mooney, and the Bears will need him as an underneath receiver with Green Bay’s defensive line creating pressure on Fields.
Aaron Jones Over 85.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards
The Packers gave A.J. Dillon 16 opportunities in Week 1 compared to ten for Aaron Jones, but I don’t expect that to be the case every week. The game got away from the Packers, and they didn’t establish their running offense the way they would have liked. Jones finished with just 76 yards from scrimmage.
Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers both spoke after the game about their desire to get Jones more touches, and I tend to believe them given their lack of proven skill position talent. I prefer playing the combined rushing and receiving yardage prop here as we can bank on Jones getting touches, but it’s unclear whether they will come as a runner or receiver.
The Bears allowed the tenth-highest rushing success rate in Week 1 despite knowing the 49ers couldn’t pass downfield given the weather conditions, and this is a matchup Jones can exploit. You can play his touchdown prop as well if you want, and Jones will likely be an excellent option for your captain spot in the single game DFS game modes.
Robert Tonyan Anytime TD
I’m running it back with Robert Tonyan this week after he got a red-zone target last week, and I like his touchdown odds at anything over +150. Tonyan scored 11 touchdowns in 2020 before an injury-riddled 2021 season, and he’s likely Rodgers’s first or second read down by the goalline.
If Allen Lazard doesn’t play this week, I like this prop even more, as Lazard would likely be the top read in the red zone. Rodgers doesn’t have established chemistry with the two rookies yet, and Sammy Watkins and Randall Cobb do little to inspire confidence. Let’s get Robert Tonyan a touchdown this week.
