Get NFL player prop picks & odds for the Chicago Bears Vs. Minnesota Vikings matchup on (10/9/22).
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Bears Vs. Vikings Player Prop Picks
This weekend, the Chicago Bears travel out west to Minnesota for a divisional rivalry clash against the 3-1 Vikings. Minnesota are off to a strong start, having beaten the Packers and losing only to an elite Eagles team. Meanwhile, the Bears are 2-2, but it’s been a pretty ugly path there against some terrible teams. Let’s discuss which players might have a big day, and props to bet for this matchup.
Justin Fields longest pass o31.5 yards
I know, I know. Gambling on Fields to do anything effectively through the air seems like flushing cash down the toilet, as he’s been by far the least productive full-time passer in the NFL thus far. That being said, there is one thing he’s been great at: generating the big play. Fields plays a boom-or-bust style of football, and while this season has skewed drastically towards the “bust” side of that dichotomy, that doesn’t mean the gambles never pay off from time to time within games. In fact, while his horrendous completion percentage demolishes his yards per attempt total, Fields actually leads the entire league in yards per completion with a massive average of 13.9. This further supports the point that although he doesn’t connect all that consistently, when he does it can very realistically be for a nice chunk of yards. According to PFF, the Vikings have one of the worst coverage units in the league (26th overall), so they’ll likely be susceptible to Fields’s deep strikes, particularly as they deal with the mental and physical fatigue of traveling out to London for a ballgame.
Khalil Herbert First Half Touchdown (+310)
This usually isn’t how I approach these picks, but I want to take a look at a bet that is a bit of a longer shot from an odds perspective, and of course a bigger payout. With David Montgomery sidelined, Herbert has fully assumed the role of the Bears’ lead back. Montgomery is practicing this week, in a limited capacity, so he may be a factor against the Vikings, but Herbert is certainly here to stay as at least an option 1b, if not the top dog in the Chicago backfield. Regarding this prop specifically, Montgomery hasn’t scored a touchdown so far, while Herbert has 3 this year; clearly, Matt Eberflus is entrusting one more than the other with the high-leverage carries. They’ll be going up against a Vikings defense that is allowing 131 yards per game, and have the 7th worst EPA, and 6th worst DVOA, against the run. Now why the first half qualification? I see the Vikings running away with this one, and the Bears may finally have to go to the air in the second half. Herbert is not particularly involved in the Chicago air game, to the extent that it even exists, so I’m going to say that it’s worth more than doubling your potential payout and limiting his touchdown prop to just the first half of this game.
Kirk Cousins u250.5 passing yards
So far, Captain Kirk has been the very picture of mediocrity, throwing between 220 and 280 yards each game, and not in a particularly efficient manner. It’s true that his only game under a total of 250 came in a Vikes loss, but I actually think the potential game script of a Vikings blowout victory lends itself to Kirk staying under. All of the wins in which he eclipsed this mark were very close, so there wasn’t much of the Vikings running the ball out with Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison; I expect a lot more of that this weekend. Moreover, the Chicago pass defense has been pretty darn good at limiting opposing QBs so far. They’re only allowing 168 passing yards per game, and the most they’ve given up is 245 from Davis Mills in what was actually a Bears win. I don’t foresee Kirk passing the ball that well on Sunday, and I don’t imagine that the Vikings will ask him to do it too often either.