Get Chicago Bears Vs. New England Patriots player prop picks & odds for the (10/24/22) matchup
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Chicago Bears Vs. New England Patriots Player Prop Picks
On Monday Night Football, we will watch two teams heading in opposite directions. The Bears have lost three straight games after starting 2-1 while the Patriots have won two straight. While Bailey Zappe has played very well, Mac Jones is expected to get the start as he returns from his high ankle sprain. In this article, I’ll break down my favorite player prop values from this game. You can use the Bears vs. Patriots player prop search tool above to compare odds from different sportsbooks.
Jakobi Meyers Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-113 FanDuel)
All Jakobi Meyers has done this season is average over 80 yards per game despite catching passes from two different quarterbacks, and he’s still priced in the mid-50s for his receiving yardage prop. Meyers has two games with a target share over 35% this year, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him around that range this week. Mac Jones will look to lean on him in the short to intermediate areas as he returns from his injury.
This game also profiles as an excellent matchup for Meyers, who has played 63.4% of his career snaps out of the slot. Jaylon Johnson and Kindle Vildor play on the perimeter, and both are top-20 corners per PFF this season, while rookie Kyle Gordon mans the slot and is ranked as the 77th-best cornerback on the site. Barring an extreme positive game script in which the Patriots attempt 20 or fewer passes, which is certainly possible, Meyers should have no problem hitting the over here.
David Montgomery Over 10.5 Receiving Yards (-115 Caesars)
The Patriots’ defense has been excellent against the pass as they rank sixth in overall pass defense DVOA. However, the one area where they have been somewhat vulnerable is agaisnt running backs. New England has allowed 5.9 catches for 41.2 yards per game to RBs, and they rank 28th in DVOA against the position. If the Bears can find any success in their passing game, perhaps it can come through their backs.
David Montgomery has been heavily utilized in the passing game this season as he has an 18+% target share in three of his four full games played. In those four games, he’s averaging over 28 receiving yards per game. The Luke Getsy offense has clearly emphasized utilizing running backs through the air, and Montgomery has earned the trust of the team.
Justin Fields Over 42.5 Rushing Yards (-113 FanDuel)
If there’s one area where Justin Fields has found success this season, it’s with running the ball. He’s averaging 47 rushing yards over his last six games, and he’s hit the over on this prop in four straight games. He’s also coming off his best rushing performance of the season as he finished with 88 yards against the Commanders.
The Patriots haven’t faced too many “mobile” quarterbacks this year, although they did allow 107 rushing yards to Lamar Jackson a few weeks ago. Of course, Fields isn’t nearly the same talent as Jackson, but it’s indicative that their linebacking corps still lacks speed. New England ranks 26th in run defense DVOA compared to their ranking of sixth against the pass. Chicago will need to run the ball to find success, and Fields will be a big part of it.