Chicago Bears vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Player Props (10/24/21)

The Buccaneers host the Bears and are one of the biggest favorites of the week, with about a 12-point line favoring Tampa Bay. However, I believe this will be a lower-scoring, tighter game, and I’m leaning towards Chicago against the spread. In addition, there are tons of great prop bets available, and there seems to be some fantastic value in this game betting on

Justin Fields Over 213.5 Passing Yards

I don’t typically like betting on things that have never happened before, but I believe there is value in betting on Justin Fields this week. The Bears opened up the offense more last week and allowed Fields to have a career-high 27 passing attempts. If Chicago’s coaches are competent, which is highly debatable in its own right, they’ll let Fields throw the ball, even more, this week. Tampa has the most significant discrepancy between its pass defense and run defense in the NFL this year as its run defense ranks 5th in DVOA, and its pass defense ranks 18th in DVOA. With the Buccaneers as big favorites, Fields will likely be asked to throw the ball more to keep the Bears in the game, and I’m expecting career numbers from him against a very beatable secondary still dealing with several injuries.

Darnell Mooney Over 51.5 Receiving Yards

I don’t believe it’s a stretch to call Darnell Mooney the Bears’ top wide receiver ahead of Allen Robinson as he’s outsnapped the veteran and seen three more targets and four more receptions this year. Mooney has seen 5+ targets in all but one game this season, and he flashed how special his connection with Fields can be when he had five catches for 125 yards in Week 4. Against the Buccaneers, Mooney will have an easier matchup to work with, and the Bears should pass the ball more than usual this week. I’d happily parlay this with the Fields bet above and think both players have some of their best games of the season so far.

Leonard Fournette Over 66.5 Rushing Yards

This line seems very low to me. The perception of the Bears’ defense is that they are elite against the run, but they are 16th in rushing yards allowed and 13th in yards per carry allowed. Football Outsiders has them as just the 23rd-best run defense in DVOA. Fournette has averaged 18 carries per game over the past three weeks, and Ronald Jones is essentially a non-factor as Fournette has significantly outsnapped him every week this season. The game script should be favorable for Fournette to see a hefty workload, and I have him projected for about 18 carries for 78 yards.

Chris Godwin Over 6.5 Receptions

Tom Brady has proven willing to throw in all kinds of game scripts this season, and that has been to all of his pass-catchers benefits, although his willingness to spread the ball around has hurt Godwin’s production. Chris Godwin has averaged just 5.6 receptions for 68 yards this year. However, this week neither Antonio Brown nor Rob Gronkowski will play, which leaves Godwin with an expected sizable target share. The Bears have a solid pass defense, but Brady should be capable of hanging in the pocket and handling the pressure to complete passes downfield. Godwin is underpriced at the moment, given the injuries in the offense.