Get Chiefs vs. Jets player prop picks & odds for the (10/1/23) matchup
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Chiefs vs. Jets Player Prop Picks
The New York Jets welcome the Kansas City Chiefs to New York for Sunday Night Football this weekend (10/1/23). With Taylor Swift expected to be in attendance again, the betting odds for Travis Kelce’s player prop bets could not possibly be too high. Let’s take a look at some of the best Chiefs vs. Jets player prop bets for this week 4 matchup.
Travis Kelce longest reception over 20.5 yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Let’s pay off the above tease with a Travis Kelce prop pick, because not betting on Kelce given the current storylines surrounding him and this game would be bad karma. The challenge is picking the right prop on which to bet.
As we explained in our matchup preview where our Chiefs vs. Jets best bet recommendation was the Chiefs to cover an alternate spread of -13 (see what we did there?), we expect the Chiefs to be winning handily in this game. Kelce will certainly be a big part of making that happen, but his overall volume could be depressed if the Chiefs take their foot off the gas in the second half. That makes betting on his receptions or yardage props a bit risky, and his odds for an anytime touchdown are not playable.
That leaves us with the most attractive option being his longest reception. As of this writing, the best place to make that bet is FanDuel, where it’s 1 yard lower and has better odds than other sportsbooks.
Kelce has had a reception of at least 21 yards in 10 of his last 13 regular season games. He went over that mark in 11 games last season, 7 games in 2021 and 9 games in 2020 (plus 3 others with a long of 20). The Jets are vulnerable against tight ends. They allowed the 5th most receptions and the 6th most yards to tight ends last season, and they have allowed the 5th most yards to the position so far this season.
Under the bright lights of Sunday Night Football, and with his special guest watching, Kelce is going to make a big play at some point in this game. He has a reputation as arguably the best tight end of all time for a reason. You want to get some action on Kelce in this game, and longest reception is the best Kelce prop bet to make.
Isiah Pacheco over 52.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Leaning further into the expected game script where the Chiefs will be playing with a lead in this game means they will also be running the ball more heavily, especially in the second half. If that’s the case, then Isiah Pacheco should see a nice volume of work in this game that will be enough for him to go over 52.5 rushing yards.
Pacheco has gone over this number in 10 of his last 12 regular season games and 12 of his last 15 overall including last year’s playoffs. He is averaging 65.7 rushing yards per game over that span and averaging 4.9 yards per carry.
He is also averaging just over 13 carries per game over that span and 12.3 carries per game this season. All he needs to do is maintain those averages and he will have no problem cashing this bet.
The Jets do have a very good defense, but they are much better against the pass than they are against the run. They are just 23rd against the run so far this season, allowing 129.3 yards per game (though their 3.7 yards per carry allowed ranks 10th, so volume has something to do with the total numbers). They were also just 16th against the run last year, allowing 121.6 per game on 4.2 per carry. By contrast, they were 3rd against the pass last year and 17th so far this season.
Pacheco is an ascending player who is getting a bigger role in the Chiefs’ offense. That continues this week with another nice workload that leads to over 52.5 rushing yards.
Breece Hall under 50.5 rushing yards
After exploding for 127 yards against Buffalo in week 1, it looked like Breece Hall might be picking up right where he left off before his ACL injury in his rookie season last year. Since then, however, he has just 27 total rushing yards and is averaging a paltry 1.69 yards per carry. Granted he faced two excellent defenses in the Cowboys and Patriots, but those are still some putrid numbers that are not solely attributable to the bad matchups.
Part of the problem is the Jets’ lack of anything resembling a competent passing offense. That allows opposing defenses to stack the box and dare Zach Wilson to beat them through the air, which he has shown no ability to do successfully so far in his career, and that seems unlikely to change this week.
As linebacker Willie Gay already told us, the Chiefs know the Jets are going to try to run the ball in this game. That doesn’t mean they’re going to be able to do so successfully.
— Aaron Ladd (@aaronladdtv) September 27, 2023
The Chiefs have the 11th best run defense so far this season, though their 4.4 yards per carry allowed is just 18th. The only team that has been successful running the ball against them was Detroit, and that was before Chris Jones ended his holdout and returned to the team. Since then the Chiefs have not allowed a running back to top 40 yards in a game.
Breece Hall has the type of talent that he could break away for one big run and hit the over on 50.5 yards in just 1 play, as we saw in week 1 against Buffalo. But that might be the only way he will be able to put up some yards, because we don’t expect him to be able to consistently pick up solid gains if the Chiefs are selling out to stop the run. That makes the under the far more likely scenario and one of the best player prop bets you can make in this Chiefs vs. Jets matchup.