Welcome to New York, where the Jets are waiting for the Kansas City Chiefs (and possibly a very special guest) on Sunday Night Football (10/1/23). The Chiefs enter the game with a big Reputation as the Jets are expected to be seeing Red all night.
Betting odds have the Chiefs as the favorites at -9 on the spread, while the over/under is set at 41.5 points. This article provides Chiefs vs. Jets analysis, predictions and best bets and recommends leaning into all the Taylor Swift hype by betting on the Chiefs to cover an alternate spread of -13.
Chiefs vs. Jets Prediction & Best Bet
NFL fans know all too well that the biggest storyline entering this game has nothing to do with what’s happening on the field, but rather with whether a certain celebrity will be in attendance. NBC studio executives can only hope that Taylor Swift will make an appearance to help boost the ratings for a primetime game that lost a lot of its hype the moment Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles.
Everyone knew the Jets were in trouble from the moment Zach Wilson walked into that game. Ever since that moment, Wilson has been the Jets’ anti-hero. It’s unlikely Wilson or coach Robert Saleh will admit “I’m the problem, it’s me,” even though it’s true. Even Jets legend Joe Namath thinks the franchise needs to break up with their quarterback and tell him that we’re never, ever getting back together.
Only two quarterbacks have been worse than Wilson this season, according to Pro Football Focus, who have graded him just ahead of rookie Bryce Young and 1st-year starter Desmond Ridder. The Jets are last in the league in total offense and passing offense, and Wilson has the lowest EPA per play and the fourth-lowest CPOE (completion percentage over expected) in the league.
Crazy things can happen in football, but even in your wildest dreams it’s hard to imagine Wilson having much success against the Chiefs’ defense. That seems more like the stuff of Folklore.
The Chiefs’ defense looks like the strength of their team so far this season, especially since Chris Jones decided to end his cruel summer and return to the team in week 2. The Chiefs are 4th in scoring defense and 6th in total defense after 3 games. While those numbers can be misleading early in the season, they have done that against some pretty good offenses in the Lions and Jaguars.
They may have been facing one of the worst defenses in the league last week when they exploded for 41 points against Chicago, but the Chiefs’ offense looked like it was back to being the next great American dynasty. They face a tough matchup against a Jets’ defense that PFF ranks as the fifth-best unit so far this season, although they are just 20th in total defense.
You would have to be pretty Fearless to bet on the Jets in this game. If you’re even considering that, you need to calm down.
The -9 spread is giving some respect to the Jets’ defense and the home field advantage, but this game should not be that close. You can get some better value by playing an alternate spread, and given the bigger storylines surrounding this game, it would be good karma to bet the Chiefs at a spread of -13.
Chiefs vs. Jets Prediction & Best Bet: Chiefs 31-13, Chiefs cover -13 alternate spread
Chiefs vs. Jets Betting Odds
KC @ NYJ
Oct. 01, 7:20 PM
Odds updated October 1st, 2023, at 10:12 pm
The most important odds to know are the odds that Taylor Swift shows up for this game, which are currently off the books but worth monitoring.
In actual football odds, the spread has moved from an opening line of Chiefs -7.5 at many sportsbooks to -9 or -9.5 as of this writing. Keep an eye on that line to see if it reaches the key number of 10, which would be unexpected.
The over/under has seen downward movement since opening at 43 and is currently at 41.5 at most major sportsbooks. It’s unlikely to drop any further than that, but it’s possible.
The implied outcome of these odds is the Chiefs winning 25-16.
Chiefs vs. Jets Key Injuries
The Chiefs have quite a long injury report this week, though most of the affected players do not appear to be serious risks of missing this game. The two big exceptions are two of their best players on defense, LB Nick Bolton and DT Chris Jones. Bolton (ankle) missed the first two practices this week while Jones (groin) was limited both times. WR Kadarius Toney (toe) also was limited and his status is worth monitoring.
The only Jets player that appears to be at risk of missing this game is nickel safety Tony Adams, who missed the first two practices this week with a hamstring injury. Kicker Greg Zuerlein is dealing with a groin injury but should be ready to play. RT Mekhi Becton and RB Breece Hall are two key members of the offense on the injury report as they continue to recover from knee injuries, but they do not appear to be at risk of missing the game.
Chiefs vs. Jets Key Matchups
Check out the key matchups and mismatches for Chiefs vs. Jets below.
Jets running backs vs. Chiefs’ run defense
Chiefs linebacker Willie Gay already admitted that they know the Jets are going to try to lean on the running game in this matchup.
— Aaron Ladd (@aaronladdtv) September 27, 2023
Gay had to hold back laughter because of how obvious it is that running the ball is the only way the Jets can do much offensively. They beat the Bills in week 1 largely because Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook combined for 160 rushing yards. They haven’t been able to do much since, having gained just 52 yards total in the last two weeks, albeit in tough matchups against the Cowboys’ and Patriots’ defenses.
The Chiefs have been doing a good job stopping the run, allowing just over 100 yards per game (11th best in the league). However, they are just 25th in EPA per rush allowed, and have been much stronger against the pass based on EPA allowed. That sets up for the Jets to go all out to establish the run and take some pressure off Zach Wilson. If the Chiefs can take that away, it’s going to be another tough day for the Jets’ offense.
Travis Kelce vs. Jets’ coverage
As if Patrick Mahomes needed any more reasons to get the ball to Travis Kelce, he admitted after the Bears game that he wanted to get Kelce a touchdown because of his special guest. That could be the case again this week.
The Jets have allowed the 5th most yards to opposing tight ends so far this season. They have also allowed three touchdowns to tight ends so far this season, tied with the Eagles for the most in the league. They also struggled to cover tight ends last year, when they allowed the 5th most catches and the 6th most yards.
If they can’t find a way to slow down the Mahomes-Kelce connection, then there is a very good chance that Kelce and his special guest will be celebrating another blowout victory in his getaway car.
Taylor Swift ,Travis Kelce in the staged getaway car
Good work PR team pic.twitter.com/25hweuFtzy
— Жасмин (@jasmean201) September 25, 2023