Get Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles player prop picks & odds for the (2/12/23) matchup
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles Player Prop Picks
The biggest sports betting event of the year is upon us, as the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl 57 on Sunday, February 12. This is an incredibly intriguing Super Bowl matchup between the top seeds from both conferences.
This Super Bowl promises plenty of fireworks as it features two of the most explosive, high-powered offenses in the league this season. The Chiefs’ offense finished 1st in DVOA, EPA, points scored and yards gained, while the Eagles finished 3rd, 3rd, 2nd and 2nd in those same categories. The Chiefs were more prolific through the air, finishing 1st in virtually every category of passing offense. The Eagles’ passing offense was also excellent, but it was the running game where they led the league in virtually every category.
The Eagles bring a stronger defense into this game, as they ranked 6th in DVOA and 4th in EPA, while the Chiefs ranked 17th and 15th in those categories. The Eagles’ passing defense (1st in DVOA and EPA) is much stronger than its run defense (21st and 23rd, respectively), but the latter improved significantly over the second half of the season.
Will the Chiefs look to attack the Eagles on the ground, or will Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and company be able to connect on some big plays against the dominant Eagles pass defense?
Will the Eagles pound the ball on the ground like they did against the 49ers, or will Jalen Hurts look to air it out to A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert?
If you’re like me then your favorite bets to make on the Super Bowl are individual player props, and we have plenty of star power in this game which means a ton of fun options for betting on player performances. The Lineups team has you covered with its favorite betting picks for every big name player in this game, which you can find below.
If you want to get some action on specific players in this game, then check out those articles for the best bets on those players. In this article I have narrowed that down and I am picking from all those options to give you my favorite player prop bets for this Chiefs vs. Eagles matchup in Super Bowl 57.
Travis Kelce over 78.5 receiving yards (-115 at Caesars)
Kelce is by far the most dangerous playmaker on this Chiefs offense, and Mahomes has relied on him heavily so far in the playoffs. He leads the Chiefs with 21 catches, 25 targets, 176 receiving yards and three touchdowns in their two playoff games. Those 25 targets represent a whopping 31.2% target share.
Part of the reason Kelce’s target share has ballooned from his 23.3% mark in the regular season is the injuries to the Chiefs’ wide receivers. In this matchup, those wide receivers face off against one of the best trios of cornerbacks in the league in Darius Slay, James Bradberry and slot corner Avonte Maddox.
The Eagles will certainly be focused on slowing down Kelce, but that doesn’t mean they will be successful. Expect them to use a variety of coverage options to try to contain him, including Maddox, safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson and linebackers T.J. Edwards and Kyzir White. They will also look to double team when possible.
Another strategy could be to force Kelce to stay behind as an extra blocker to help protect Mahomes from the Eagles’ dominant pass rush, but I would expect them to use backup tight ends Noah Gray and Blake Bell in those roles instead of Kelce.
Kelce is a big-game player who steps up in the biggest moments. In two Super Bowl appearances, he has 16 catches on 21 targets for 176 yards and a touchdown. I expect him to at least get close to that 88-yard average, if not well beyond it. He went over his receiving yards line in 10 of his 19 games this season and four of his last six, and he averaged 78.6 receiving yards for the season.
I want to get some action on Kelce in this game, and I like the prop on his receiving yards more than his receptions, which is set at 7.5 at most sportsbooks (+115 at BetMGM). That is the highest his receptions line has been all season, and he has only caught eight or more passes six times this season. He could certainly do so in this game, but I am much more confident in his yardage prop.
DeVonta Smith over 5.5 receptions (+110 at PointsBet, +105 at FanDuel)
It was disappointing when Smith’s four-game streak with six or more catches ended in the NFC Championship Game against the 49ers, but that’s not going to scare me away from going right back to this prop in the Super Bowl.
Betting the over on Smith’s receptions has been as reliable a prop bet as there could be this season. He has gone over his number in 14 of his 19 games and has had at least six receptions nine times this season. He averaged 5.6 receptions on 7.84 targets this season and has averaged 6.4 receptions on 9.2 targets over his last five games.
The main reason for Smith’s quiet performance against the 49ers was not their defense but simply the game script. With the 49ers unable to do anything offensively after Brock Purdy’s injury, the Eagles’ offense focused on running the ball to protect the lead and control possession, especially since the 49ers’ defense was unable to stop them on the ground.
Barring a similar storyline unfolding in this game (which nobody wants to see!), I expect the Eagles to be passing at a much higher volume in this matchup. Even if the Eagles’ defense slows down the Chiefs’ high-powered offense, I still expect Mahomes to be able to put together enough drives and score enough points to force the Eagles to keep their foot on the gas.
Then we consider the matchup with the Chiefs’ secondary, which features three rookie cornerbacks playing prominent roles – 1st round pick Trent McDuffie, 4th rounder Joshua Williams and 7th rounder Jaylen Watson. If top corner L’Jarius Sneed does not clear concussion protocol before the game, those rookies will be the Chiefs’ top three corners. Even if Sneed does play, he is likely to spend most of the game covering A.J. Brown, leaving Smith matched up with a rookie.
Here is a look at their numbers this season:
- McDuffie – 95% snap count in 13 games, 52.9% completion rate allowed, 86.5 QB rating when targeted, 9.4 yards/completion allowed, 10 passes defensed, zero interceptions
- Watson – 59.6% snap count in 18 games, 64.8% completion rate allowed, 103.9 QB rating when targeted, 11.2 yards/completion allowed, 10 passes defensed, three interceptions (two in playoffs)
- Williams – 39% snap count in 19 games, 56% completion rate allowed, 104.9 QB rating when targeted, 13.4 yards/completion allowed, 8 passes defensed, 2 interceptions (one in playoffs)
With his supreme route-running ability, Smith should have no trouble getting separation against those corners, so I like his chances to get enough targets to go over 5.5 receptions.
Kenneth Gainwell over 18.5 rushing yards (-115 at FanDuel)
All of a sudden, Gainwell looks like the number one running back for the Eagles. Miles Sanders is still the starter and will certainly see plenty of action in this game, but Gainwell has been the more productive player in the Eagles’ two playoff games.
He has been their leading rusher in both games with 112 yards against the Giants and 48 against the 49ers on a healthy 6.2 yards per carry average. He has also led the Eagles’ backfield in snaps (57, 39.5% share) and tied for the lead in touches (29).
Part of the reason for that could have been game script, as the Eagles jumped out to big leads in both games and may have been looking to keep Sanders fresh. Sanders was also dealing with a sprained knee at the end of the regular season, so the Eagles may have been playing it safe with him.
Regardless of the reason, Gainwell’s production and explosiveness can’t be ignored, and I expect the Eagles to look for ways to get him involved in the Super Bowl. Running behind the Eagles’ dominant offensive line against the Chiefs’ average run defense, he may only need four or five carries to hit the over. I am betting his recent production has earned him more than that, so I am betting the over on his rushing yards.
Jerick McKinnon over 21.5 receiving yards (-110 at DraftKings)
Although he has been quiet over the last three games, McKinnon has been a dangerous pass-catching threat for the Chiefs’ offense most of the season. He averaged 3.3 receptions and 30 receiving yards per game this year, and most of that production came during a 12-game stretch from weeks 5-17 when he averaged four receptions on five targets for 40 yards. He also led all running backs (and was 10th in the league) with nine touchdowns this year, eight of which came in the last six games of the regular season.
The Eagles have been vulnerable to pass-catching running backs this season. They allowed 32 receiving yards on five receptions per game to opposing backs, which puts them in the bottom half of the league in both categories, and they were 24th in pass defense DVOA against running backs.
The biggest reason that I am looking at this prop bet is because of the Eagles’ pass rush. I expect Mahomes to be under pressure frequently in this game, and McKinnon is his most reliable checkdown target. He is also a reliable pass blocker who the Chiefs trust on passing downs over rookie Isiah Pacheco, which is why McKinnon led the backfield in snap share at 47.1% during the regular season and 35% in the playoffs.
McKinnon will be on the field more than Pacheco in this game and will have plenty of opportunities to pick up yards in the passing game. If he gets close to his average of nine yards per reception, then he only needs three opportunities to hit the over. I like his chances to get that.
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