Cincinnati Bengals vs Oakland Raiders (11/17/19): NFL Betting Picks, Lines

The Setup

With seven weeks remaining in the 2019 NFL season, everything is pointing upward for the Oakland Raiders.

The Raiders, who have already won more games than they did last year in Jon Gruden’s return to the team, are in extremely good shape in both the AFC West and AFC wild card race. The Raiders are currently sitting seventh in the six-team playoff race, but there is too much good things happens for the team and their fans to worry about their current projections.

Week 10 broke beautifully for Oakland as it won an AFC West thriller, beating the Los Angeles Chargers, 26-24, in the final moments. The win catapulted the Raiders to a 5-4 record and dropped the disappointing Chargers to 4-6 and it snapped a four-game winning streak by the Chargers over Oakland.

The good vibes continued for the Raiders on Sunday and the AFC West-leading Kansas City Chiefs completely ruined a terrific performance by Patrick Mahomes in his return from injury in a last-second loss to the Tennessee Titans. Kansas City is now 6-4. It leads the Raiders by just a half game in the AFC West. The Chiefs did beat the Raiders in Oakland in Week 2. The two teams play in Kansas City on Dec. 1 in what should be a critical game.

The Raiders, who have been up and down this season, has won two straight games and are facing an incredibly easy schedule down the stretch. The Chiefs are the only remaining Oakland opponent that has a winning record.

The Raiders’ two opponents before the Kansas City showdown are the Cincinnati Bengals and the New York Jets. The winless Bengals – the worst team in a league full of horrible squads, visit Oakland this weekend.

Frankly, it should be a bloodbath. Gruden knows how to handle bad teams.

Let’s look at some key betting elements to the game. Lines are based on a sampling of several sportsbooks:

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Point Spread

The line: Oakland by 10.5 points

Why: This point spread could be he poster card of the NFL 2019 betting landscape. A 5-4 team is often not a double-digit favorite, especially won with a suspect defense. but this is the year of the double-digit point spread in the NFL. They used to be rare. Not anymore. This point spread is based all on the Bengals. They are routinely double-digit underdogs and will likely continue to be all season.

My lean: Raiders all the way. Honestly, I would back the Raiders even if this point spread was 15-16 points. The Raiders usually lose to good teams, hang or beat with average teams and smoke bad teams. That is what is going to happen Sunday barring a shocking outcome or major Oakland injuries. The Raiders are playing their final games in Oakland. The crowd is rapid and it smells the playoffs. This should be a day of carnage for the Bengals.

The Total

The line: 49 points

Why: This total is high, but I could actually see it being even higher. Why? Oakland’s offense is good, while both the Bengals and the Raiders’ defense is not good. Here’s the deal: The Raiders are going to score  a lot of points in this game. Their season high total is 31 points (they did it twice, against the Indianapolis Colts and the Detroit Lions).  I can see the Raiders eclipsing those marks. The Bengals have the worst run defense in the NFL. Oakland rookie running back Josh Jacobs has the sixth most yards in the NFL. The Raiders are going to control this game.

My lean: Yes, 49 points is high. But I see the Raiders scoring more than 35 points, so I’m going over. Yes. the Ryan Findley-led Bengals are awful on offense, but the Raiders’ defense isn’t great. I think these two teams will combined to get to the over.

Moneyline

The lines: Oakland is -500 and Cincinnati is +370

Why: These type of drastic moneyline prices happen when there is a double-digit point spread

My lean: I’m real big either way on this line. I don’t like the Bengals’ chances at all, so it’s not worth the bet even with the huge value. Perhaps betting the Raiders at -500  with a big bet is the way to go. Otherwise, this isn’t an appealing bet.

Parlay Bets To Consider

Raiders -10.5 and over +225

Why: I love these combo parlay bets if I feel strongly about both the point spread and the total. I think the Raiders are going to win in a high total game. So, let’s take the strong parlay price.

Raiders -31 points +360

Why: I think Oakland is going boat-race Cincinnati. Yes, 21 points is a huge spread. But, at +360, is the alternate point-spread line is too enticing to pass up.

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