Cincinnati Bengals Vs. Pittsburgh Steelers NFL Player Props & Picks (11/20/22)
Cincinnati Bengals Vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Player Prop Picks
One of the many intriguing games on Sunday includes two longtime AFC North rivals renewing hostilities. The Steelers are coming off a big win over the Saints while the Bengals are coming off their bye week, so the energy is certainly interesting entering this game.
I love the Steelers to cover the 4.5-point spread this week, and you can read about why in my NFL Best Bets article. Here, I’ll break down some of the player props I have my eye on, including one of my top plays from this week’s card.
You can use the player prop search tool above to compare odds from different sportsbooks and get the best value for whatever prop you’d like to place. Let’s get to work.
Najee Harris Under 49.5 Rushing Yards (-120 BetMGM)
As soon as I saw the news that D.J. Reader would be back for the Bengals this week, I fired on this player prop. The Bengals have allowed 150+ rushing yards in three of their last five games, but that has primarily been due to the absence of Reader, PFF’s third-ranked run defender among defensive tackles.
Najee Harris piled up 99 rushing yards last week, his season high, but he had the luxury of facing the Saints who rank 20th in yards per carry allowed. Rookie Jaylen Warren had 37 rushing yards, meanwhile, and he will likely continue to eat into Harris’s workload as the season goes along.
Harris simply hasn’t been effective this season – PFF has him graded as the fifth-worst back among ball carriers with 50+ carries, and he’s taken a significant step back from last year’s already inefficient season. He has 50 rushing yards in less than half of his games this season, and I expect Cincinnati’s run defense to flex its muscles with Reader back.
Joe Burrow Longest Pass Completion Under 37.5 Yards (-114 FanDuel)
I wouldn’t play this prop unless we have full confirmation that All Pro safety Minkah Fitzpatrick is in the lineup, but it seems as though he’ll play despite being just a week removed from his appendectomy.
With Fitzpatrick active, I expect the Steelers to use predominantly two-high coverage like they did in Week 1 against Joe Burrow. In that game, Burrow’s longest completion went for just 24 yards despite Ja’Marr Chase being in the lineup. This week, he’ll be without Chase, but he’ll still have to face T.J. Watt behind an overmatched offensive line.
Burrow faced Cover 2 defense on 28.7% of snaps against Pittsburgh in Week 1, and he threw three interceptions, took three sacks, and finished with a painful -0.29 EPA per dropback. There’s no reason for Pittsburgh to go away from that strategy, especially with their defense the healthiest its been all season and Chase out of the lineup.
Joe Mixon Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)
With Burrow not able to unleash the deep ball like I talked about above, I expect him to be looking for underneath receiving options more often. While Tyler Boyd and Hayden Hurst will certainly be utilized in that area, Mixon might be the best play given his recent involvement in the passing game.
Mixon has surpassed 25.5 receiving yards in three straight games, averaging 41 receiving yards over that span. Prior to that three-game stretch, he hadn’t gone over that number since Week 1 when he had 63 receiving yards against this Steelers team.
The Steelers haven’t necessarily been vulnerable against running backs in the passing game as they’ve allowed just 29.1 receiving yards per game to the position per Football Outsiders, but the game script here should be enough to push Mixon over this total for a fourth straight game.
