Cleveland Browns vs. Miami Dolphins NFL Player Props & Picks (11/13/22)
Cleveland Browns vs. Miami Dolphins Player Prop Picks
In week 10 action, the Cleveland Browns (3-5) bring the third-best rushing attack down to Miami to face off against the Dolphins (6-3) and their second-ranked passing offense. It will be an interesting clash of styles in the Sunshine State.
The Browns are coming off a short week after an impressive victory over Cincinnati on Monday Night Football, their first win in five weeks. The Dolphins are riding a three-game winning streak after holding off a valiant comeback attempt by Justin Fields and the Bears in Chicago last week. The Dolphins have won three, then lost three, then won three over their first nine games, so if the trend holds there could be an upset looming.
Miami is a 3.5-point favorite in this matchup and they are getting roughly 80% of the handle on the moneyline, but money on the spread is roughly 50/50. Nearly 90% of the money on the total is being bet on the over at 49.5, which is the highest over/under on the week 10 slate. A high-scoring matchup means lots of opportunities to make some money on player prop bets.
Let’s take a look at the player prop bets I like the most in this Browns vs. Dolphins matchup.
Nick Chubb over 80.5 rushing yards (-115)
Chubb has been an unstoppable force in the running game through the first half of this season. He’s 2nd in the league in rushing with 105.1 yards per game and sixth among running backs with an average of 5.6 yards per carry. He has been held below 80 yards just once this season, which was the only time he has not hit the over on his rushing prop.
The culprit in that one instance was game script, as the Browns fell behind by two scores early in the second half and eventually lost 38-15 to the Patriots. Bill Belichick is also known for his ability to scheme up ways to eliminate the opponent’s best player, which for the Browns is most certainly Chubb.
Game script could be a risk with this pick, as the Dolphins’ explosive passing game could put the Browns behind quickly, but despite what happened in the Patriots game, the Browns have generally shown a commitment to the running game regardless of game script. Nearly one third of Chubb’s carries (44 out of 149) have come when the Browns have been trailing.
The Dolphins have an average run defense, currently ranked 15th in rushing yards allowed per game (117.4) and 12th in yards per carry allowed (4.6). They have allowed over 80 yards to a running back only once this season (Breece Hall had 97 in week 5), but they have allowed an opposing runner to hit the over on their rushing prop in six out of nine games, and they just allowed 252 yards on the ground to Chicago.
Nothing about the Miami defense scares me away from betting on Chubb to continue his monster season this week.
Tua Tagovailoa over 266.5 passing yards (-115)
This number is way too low for Tua Tagovailoa, who according to most advanced metrics has been the best quarterback in the league this season. He is number one in Football Outsiders’ DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement) and DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) metrics, and frankly it’s not even close. He is also number one in the ESPN Stats & Information group’s QBR metric.
If you ignore the game against the Bengals when he only played 39% of snaps because of a concussion, Tagovailoa is averaging 311.7 passing yards per game, which would be 2nd in the league. Since returning from his concussion three weeks ago, he is averaging 315 per game. He has gone over his passing yards prop line in five of his six games that were not affected by injury.
The Browns have been average against the pass this season, currently ranking 15th in passing yards allowed per game and 18th in passing defense DVOA. They are expected to get back their top cornerback Denzel Ward, who has been out since week five with a concussion.
The Warden is ready to matchup with Cheetah 🔒@denzelward | #Browns pic.twitter.com/QMsxTE6iO8
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) November 10, 2022
He may be recovered from the concussion, but an afternoon chasing Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle is sure to cause him some headaches. So take the over on Tagovailoa’s passing yards, and stack it with one of those dynamic wide receivers…
Jaylen Waddle over 67.5 receiving yards (-115)
Both Dolphins wide receivers are good bets every week to surpass their receiving yards prop line. Hill and Waddle are first and fifth in the league in receiving yards per game at 122.7 and 90.2, respectively. They also are both in the top three in wide receiver DYAR and in the top four in DVOA. Picking between those two from a prop betting standpoint can be tricky, but Waddle has been slightly more reliable in that regard.
Waddle has gone over his receiving prop line in every game this season that Tua Tagovailoa has started and finished (as well as one of the three that he didn’t). Hill has missed his number three times (one more than Waddle), including two in games with Tagovailoa. Waddle has exceeded this week’s number of 67.5 in seven out of nine games.
In a game that is expected to be high-scoring, give me the Dolphins receiver with the lower number to clear and the better track record of doing so, and that’s Waddle.
