Cleveland Browns Vs. Pittsburgh Steelers NFL Player Props & Picks (1/8/23)

Get Cleveland Browns Vs. Pittsburgh Steelers player prop picks & odds for the (1/8/23) matchup.

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Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Player Prop Picks

The Browns and Steelers renew hostilities on Sunday in the final week of the regular season, and I have you covered with player props for this AFC North battle. You can find full coverage for this and every NFL game in Week 18 on the Lineups YouTube channel.

According to FiveThirtyEight, a win here would give the Steelers a 49% chance to make the playoffs, and they would still need the Dolphins and Patriots to lose their respective games. The Browns, meanwhile, have been eliminated. They will look to play spoiler for the second straight week after ending the Commanders’ season last week.

Be sure to use the Browns vs. Steelers player prop search tool above as the odds can vary significantly across different sportsbooks. Let’s get to work.

David Njoku Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)

David Njoku has been one of Deshaun Watson’s preferred targets with the Browns, seeing a 15+% target share in every game they’ve played together. It hasn’t quite come to fruition as he’s been under this yardage mark in three straight games and four of his last five, but I like this as a bounceback spot for the talented tight end.

The Steelers have struggled in covering tight ends lately, as they’ve allowed the sixth-highest catch rate and the ninth-most receiving yards to the position since Week 11. Mark Andrews and Darren Waller have combined for 13 catches for 158 yards against Pittsburgh over the last two weeks.

The Browns have spoken of their desire to get Deshaun Watson further integrated into the offense and to help him gain more confidence with his new team prior to the end of the season, and Njoku will be his best friend in this matchup against the Steelers potent pass rush. Look to play his touchdown prop, as well.

Nick Chubb Longest Rush Over 18.5 Yards

One last time for us, Nick. We’ve been playing this prop all season, and who are we to deny Nick Chubb the opportunity to cash on his longest rush prop one last time before the Browns season ends. Chubb is 13-3 to the over on this prop this season, and he’s cleared the 20-yard mark in all but five games.

The Steelers’ run defense has improved significantly over last season, and they rank fourth in both rushing DVOA and yards per carry allowed. However, that didn’t stop J.K. Dobbins from picking up a 22-yard run last week behind his high-level blocking and it won’t stop Chubb from doing the same this week.

However, the Steelers still allow three or more yards before contact on 25% of opponent runs per TruMedia, which ranks 22nd in the NFL. That’s music to the ears of Chubb as he turns yards before contact into breakaway runs frequently.

Najee Harris Over 69.5 Rushing Yards (-114 FanDuel)

Earlier in the season, we talked about how poor the Browns’ pass defense was, and how much of an issue it was for their overall competitiveness. Well, it was too little too late, but Cleveland ranks third in pass defense DVOA over the last six weeks. While Kenny Pickett has delivered some clutch moments lately, we should expect the Steelers to lean on the run game here.

Najee Harris has been playing much better lately, and he ranks third in missed tackles forced and eighth in PFF’s elusiveness ranking over his last eight games. The Browns still can’t defend the run as they rank 21st in rushing yards allowed per game since Week 12.

The Steelers offensive line has also made strides as they now rank 10th this season in adjusted line yards. The offense overall is third in rushing success rate. The Browns have allowed Harris to average 111.7 yards per game over their three meetings in his career, and I love his chances to have a big game as the Steelers fight for a playoff spot.