Cleveland Browns vs. Seattle Seahawks (10/13/19): NFL Betting Picks, Lines

This Week’s Results: 1-2
All-Time Results: 37-31, +6.4 Units

Cleveland Browns +2 vs. Seattle Seahawks – .25 Units

Cleveland Browns -2 (+135) vs. Seattle Seahawks – .1 Units

Cleveland strikes me as a one-issue team. If their offensive line holds up, their fine.  They get into trouble when a team like the 9ers or Rams can get pressure using only their front 4.  Browns QB, Baker Mayfield runs a 4.8-40, yet typical of a young QB still wants to break containment in the face of pressure rather than checking down.  Freddie Kitchens might prove to be a decent play-caller over time, but, at the moment, he hasn’t proved adept and adjusting his game plan when his opponent’s pass-rush blows up Plan A.

cleveland brownsAgainst Seattle, pressure should not be a problem.  Coming into last week’s Thursday Night Football game, the Rams had the 32nd ranked offensive line according to Football Outsiders – and Seattle didn’t bother Jared Goff once.  Were it not for a couple of turnovers, LA could have scored 40 points on the road in a short week against this team.  New Seahawk, Jadaveon Clowney is a solid player, but not in the Bosa-Donald mold of edge rushers, only registering 30 sacks in 67 career games.  DVOA ranks Seattle 25th in adjusted sack rate.  Mayfield will have time to utilize his premier accuracy and weapons.

The Seahawks, in general, seem far worse than their 4-1 record suggests. Seattle has 3 wins by a total of 4 points. On top of that good-luck in close games, they have had the 4th easiest schedule according to DVOA, with wins over the Bengals, Steelers, and Cardinals. Their most impressive win – over the Rams last week – came in an ideal double revenge spot, at home on a short week.

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2-Team 6-point Teaser (-120): Cleveland +8 (from +2) vs. Seattle teased with Dallas Cowboys -1 (from -7) @ NY Jets – .6 Units

dallas cowboysWhile some might scoff at putting the Browns in a teaser because they have been so up and down – with a 15-point win as a 7-point dog and a 30-point loss as a 5-point favorite – I think that trend is mitigated by the Browns overall talent advantage over the Seahawks.  If Seattle does get the win, I think they will need a major performance by Russell Wilson in the 4th quarter.  Seattle doesn’t have the offensive line or defensive line to boss the game from the outset.

Honestly, I like the Browns teaser so much I had to include it but I had a hard time finding another team to pair with them. Some sportsbooks allow you to do an “open-teaser”, where you put one leg of your teaser in, with the option to fill out the second leg the following week or even later.  Looking ahead, the Packers laying around 7-8 at home against the Raiders next week feels like a strong option.  In general, you rather tease home teams because they have historically been much more consistent then teams traveling on the road.

I do like the Cowboys to win on Sunday, so I’m including them here.  Coming off back-to-back losses, Dallas cannot afford to look past this game.  Sam Darnold is back for New York, but I don’t think he will be 100% ready for game-speed after more than a month off.

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Born in Chicago, born for Las Vegas, Mackenzie is a graduate of Yale University with a BA in English & Creative Writting. Mackenzie runs AlternativeStats.blog, which seeks to by-pass the minutiae of commonly cited sports statistics and expose the heart of what drives athletic success. After several successful years investing in Las Vegas real estate, Mackenzie is excited to transition in 2019 into betting on sports full time, as well as documenting his thought process as he further learns the craft.

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